Posted: Wednesday, August 26, 2020, 9:15 AM
A cooler start this morning in the Valley, but it will warm to the upper-80s this afternoon. It will also be another muggy day with dew points in the upper-60s locally.
A warm front draped across Lake Erie will trigger hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but most of today’s activity should stay to our north and east. I can’t completely rule out a random storm getting feisty at some point today. However, coverage of showers and storms will be less than we saw yesterday.
Chances for showers and storms will decrease after sunset and the loss of daytime heating. Our weather will remain quiet overnight but it will be very warm and muggy tonight in the Valley. Temperatures won’t cool off much more than the low-70s and dew points will stay right around 70°.
Thursday may bring a slightly better chance for strong to severe storms. With our warm front well off to the north and east, a moist and unstable atmosphere will be firmly in place over east-central Ohio tomorrow afternoon. A cold front over Wisconsin will sink southeast through the day. This could trigger scattered showers and storms again Thursday afternoon and evening.
Once again, some thunderstorms on Thursday could produce strong wind gusts and hail. A lot of the severe potential will depend on the amount of sun we manage to get early in the day.
Friday will bring yet another “pay attention to the weather” day. With the warm and very humid air mass and that cold front creeping ever closer, chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will again ramp up in the afternoon.
Friday looks like it brings the best setup for severe storms here in the Valley. In addition to the cold front, tropical moisture will begin moving into the region from whatever is leftover from Laura. This extra moisture will add additional instability to the atmosphere. the potential for training storms will raise the concern for heavy rain and flash flood potential as well. Like Thursday’s setup, much will depend on the amount of cloud cover we see early in the day Friday.
With regards to Laura, we will see limited effects from tropical moisture associated with the remnants. The main plume of moisture is forecast to remain south of Ohio as the leftovers travel towards the mid-Atlantic states Friday and Saturday.
The good news is that all of this unsettled stormy weather will likely bring some much-needed rain to east-central Ohio today through Saturday. Total rain through the period could add up to an inch to 1.5 inches with locally higher amounts in those spots that see a heavy storm.
Cooler and much drier air will arrive behind our cold front by Sunday. That warm, humid, tropical air will get pushed off to the east, and dew points will plummet all the way down to the 50s. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and much less humid conditions to move in for the first part of next week.
I’ll post updates through the rest of the week to help keep you informed as our weather situation unfolds over the next several days. I also post updates throughout the day on Twitter.