Posted Tuesday AM, May 25, 2021
Notable Forecast Changes: As was mentioned yesterday, the NWSSPC has upgraded eastern Ohio to a Level 2 (Slight Risk) on Wednesday.
Fair weather today under high pressure. Temperatures, however, will run 10° to 15° higher than normal this afternoon. Moderate dew points will make it feel a touch humid. We will remain dry overnight as the high shifts east. No severe weather is expected today and tonight.
An upper-level disturbance and its associated cold front will move eastward out of the Midwest tonight and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday afternoon and evening with this system.
With moderate amounts of instability and shear expected, the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of eastern Ohio under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. High wind gusts are the main threat but with moderate lift present, hail can’t be ruled out as well. The threat for tornadoes is low but not zero.
- Current Severe Threat Level: LOW (2 on a scale of 1-5)
- Timing: Tuesday afternoon and evening
Much will depend on the amount of cloud cover. Less cloudiness will translate to additional energy and instability ahead of the front. More clouds will limit the potential for severe storms. Regardless of the severe potential, pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in our area.
Showers and storms should exit east of the region Wednesday night.
High pressure will return fair weather and cooler temperatures to east-central Ohio on Thursday. No severe weather is expected.
EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Rain can be expected late Thursday night through Friday night as low pressure moves through the Upper Ohio Valley. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly on Friday but severe storms are not expected at this time. Lingering scattered showers will remain possible through Saturday morning before the low shifts east of the area. After a relatively cool Saturday, dry and sunny conditions along with warming temperatures are likely Sunday and Memorial Day.
The threat for severe weather has been unusually quiet so far this year and tomorrow’s severe potential is the highest we’ve seen this season to date. Remain weather aware on Wednesday.
Updates will be posted with any significant changes late today and Wednesday morning. I’ll also tune in the timing for the arrival of storms in our area later this evening.