Initial timing of Wednesday’s thunderstorms

Posted Tuesday PM, May 25, 32021

A cold front will approach and cross east-central Ohio bringing the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to the Valley Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of eastern Ohio under the standard Slight Risk (Level #2 on a scale of 1-5).

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the afternoon due to a moist and moderately unstable airmass in place as the front advances into our area. The main factor that will limit the development of strong thunderstorms in the afternoon will be an area of scattered showers that may move through the region Wednesday morning. This early instance of showers, along with cloud cover, may serve to limit destabilization and thus limit the potential for severe storms later in the day.

NAM3k Model depiction at 7:00 AM Wednesday. And area of scattered showers moving east through the region may introduce enough stability to limit the afternoon severe potential.

LOCAL TIMING
The main line of showers and thunderstorms should be entering northwest Ohio by 8:00 AM. These will advance eastward through the state during the day arriving at our location around 1:00 PM/3:00 PM Wednesday afternoon. The line should exit our area around 6:00 PM. This will be the period where we see the highest potential for strong to severe storms in our area.

NAM3k Model at 2:00 PM Wednesday

SEVERE THREATS
The biggest threat in our area from any severe storms will be strong gusty wind. Hail is also possible although large hail is not likely. The threat for tornadoes is not zero but it isn’t a big threat either. The SPC has us under a 2-percent tornado threat as of their Tuesday evening update.

SPC Tornado Risk for Wednesday, May 26.

Dry weather will return Thursday as cooler and drier air moves into east-central Ohio behind the front.

I’ll post an update Wednesday morning with any changes or updated information. Currently, I do not see this as a big severe threat in our area but remain weather aware Wednesday afternoon. Much will depend on how robust those early morning showers/storms are and how much cloud cover lingers as we approach the afternoon.

I’ll also updates throughout the day on Twitter (@tuscwx).

 

 

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