Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with a cold front. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Not much has changed with regards to today’s severe threat and timing. Chances for thunderstorms will increase through the day as a strong cold front approaches east-central Ohio from the west.
The morning analysis shows the main area of today’s activity entering northwestern Ohio at 8:00 AM. This area will be the focus of severe storms in our area during the mid-afternoon.
As expected, a pre-frontal wave in central Ohio this morning is producing scattered showers and some thunder. This feature will also impact our potential for severe weather later today. Otherwise, we have plenty of warm moist, and unstable air in place. Clouds associated with the pre-frontal wave will likely thin and allow for enough sun that will add more instability ahead of the front.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of east-central Ohio in the standard Slight Risk (Level 2 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms today. The main threat will be strong gusty wind. Hail is also possible. The threat for tornadoes is low, but not zero.
TIMING
The timing for our main line of thunderstorms hasn’t changed since my update last evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach from the west early this afternoon.
This line of storms will push east through the area likely exiting by 5:00/6:00 PM, so the threat for strong storms will be relatively short. Other than a stray renegade shower or storm as the front clears the region through the evening, things should quickly quiet down.
I would also add moderate to heavy rainfall to the list with this main line of storms. It will move along fairly quickly so flooding, other than maybe some localized street flooding, shouldn’t be a big concern.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
High pressure will bring a dry and sunny day to the Valley on Thursday. No severe weather is likely.
A low pressure system will track east through the Upper Ohio Valley region on Friday. This will bring likely chances for widespread showers to our area. There is a very low chance (Level 1 on a scale of 1-5) for an isolated strong thunderstorm.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
Fair weather will be the main weather feature over the long Memorial Day weekend. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
As always, I’ll have local updates when/if needed here and on Twitter (@tuscwx) throughout the day. Be safe out there, have multiple ways to get weather warnings, and stay weather aware this afternoon.
