Posted by Joe on Monday, February 26, at 8:30 am
Weak high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures across the Valley through Monday evening. Our local weather will turn active on Tuesday as a strengthening low pressure system approaches and then crosses our area on Wednesday.
It should be noted that there are yet some irregularities regarding the timing of the storm system and precipitation amounts. These differences will likely get ironed out with later model runs.
A strong storm system developing in the Midwest on Monday will likely strengthen as it travels eastward into Ohio by Wednesday.
Expect rain showers to spread into east-central Ohio by Tuesday morning with this system. Deeper moisture with the system is initially expected to keep well south of the Valley so most of the rain on Tuesday will be light.
Temperatures locally will be unseasonably warm by Tuesday afternoon under a very moist southerly flow. Dew points will also push into the mid to upper 50s. This may introduce a touch of instability and a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. Strong to severe storms appear to be unlikely on Tuesday.
The latest data shows indicates a manageable wind fields on Tuesday. Those southerly winds will be brisk at times at around 15 mph with gusts near 30 mph or so. Those speeds will generally be maintained through Tuesday night.
The primary question regarding the Tuesday night to Wednesday night period centers around the forward speed of the system and the arrival of the associated cold front. This morning’s runs favor a faster-moving system. This timing would limit instability and thus lower the potential for severe thunderstorms in our area.
Regardless of any thunderstorms, strong wind gusts appear likely on Wednesday. With today’s outlook, I opted to keep max gusts to 40 mph for now. The fine details are still a little sketchy but in the 24 hours from 1:00 AM Wednesday to 1:00 AM Thursday, some modeling shows gusts exceeding 40 mph in parts of eastern Ohio. Wind gusts in ANY thunderstorms that develop locally could easily exceed 40 mph.
There is also high confidence in a soaking rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. With ample Gulf moisture present, current model projections show favorable probabilities of 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain across our area on Wednesday. Probabilities of amounts greater than an inch fall off to around 30 to 60 percent. The forward speed of the system will work in our favor here and any flooding issues will likely be limited. Rainfall rates may be heavy at times so street flooding will be something to watch for in some locations.
Temperatures on Wednesday will start out quite warm reaching to around 60° in the morning. Those will fall off quickly behind a sharp cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Rain is likely to change over to snow showers as temperatures fall toward freezing after sunset. Precipitation amounts behind the front are limited so any any appreciable snow accumulation will be hard to come by. Temperatures will end up at around 22°/24° by sunrise Thursday.
High pressure will return sunshine to the region but temperatures around the local area will remain chilly on Thursday. A warming trend will get underway from Friday through Sunday.
Does this indicate that March will come in like a lion?
Thanks for the excellent commentary!