Posted Friday, March 29, by Joe
Low pressure will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms. A series of crossing low pressure systems will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region later Sunday through Tuesday, with heavy rain and severe storms possible.
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely develop late Friday night and Saturday.
- A lull in precipitation is expected Saturday night through early Sunday morning
- A warm front advancing north through eastern Ohio will bring a return of showers and possible thunderstorms to the region late Sunday through Sunday night
- A low-end risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening sets up for portions of east-central Ohio
- A stronger area of low pressure could bring the potential of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.
- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and large hail will be possible on Tuesday
- Colder temperatures and windy conditions will follow on Wednesday
ANALYSIS
A quickly-moving low pressure system will track across northern Ohio tonight through Saturday bringing rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to our area. This first system will travel through rather quickly so rainfall should be limited to around a half inch or so. However, with a bit of instability present, some thunderstorms could become organized enough to produce gusty winds.
This first system will drag a cold front across eastern Ohio on Saturday. The front is expected to hang up across the Ohio Valley before lifting back northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday in advance of a second low pressure system moving in from the Midwest. Elevated instability could also support scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night which could bring heavy rain rates and a damaging wind threat to parts of east-central Ohio.
A band of more significant rainfall is expected with this second system which could bring flooding concerns to the region.
The warm front is then expected to stall across the upper Ohio Valley on Monday and periods of heavy rain are possible where the front hangs up. It’s uncertain at this time exactly where that occurs.
Additional rain along with increasing instability could result in a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as the system pulls a cold front across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of east-central Ohio under a marginal risk for severe storms on Tuesday. This will likely change over the Easter Weekend as more data becomes available.
Colder air will advance into the region behind the cold front on Wednesday maintaining the chances for rain and snow showers before the system exits the region on Thursday.
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
Expect widespread rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms at times through mid-week of next week. Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible. Rises in creeks and rivers are also likely through the coming week. The risk for flooding and flash flooding will increase as the ground becomes saturated – especially on Monday and Tuesday.
