Posted Saturday March 30 by Joe
A weak low pressure system and an associated cold front will track across eastern Ohio late this afternoon and in an unstable atmosphere, will have the potential to produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Confidence has increased since this morning that a fair amount of instability will develop over eastern Ohio just as a cold front is lifting into the region. Storms during this period could carry the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area to a Slight Risk (Level 2 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms later today.
Temperatures this afternoon will be the main factor regarding the development of supercells in this environment. If enough heating can occur this afternoon in the wake of the morning showers, AND storms can initiate early enough (4 PM instead of 6 PM) There can be a short window at the onset with conditions more favorable for tornadoes. As such, the risk for tornadoes while low, cannot be completely ruled out.
Any storms that do develop and move through eastern Ohio late this afternoon should weaken as they move east in the 8 – 10 PM time frame.
Again, the primary threats in any severe thunderstorms that may develop are large hail and damaging wind gusts. The threat of tornadoes is low but not zero.
LOCAL TIMING
While certain conditions must be in place, the best time for severe weather in our area is between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM Saturday. Please make sure you have a reliable way to receive warning should they be issued for our area.
