A potent low pressure system traveling across Ohio will bring a threat of severe thunderstorms to the Tuscarawas Valley area this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and tornadoes are the main threats. Hail and brief heavy rain is also possible.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely today as strong low pressure crosses the Great Lakes region. Some storms, mainly during the late afternoon into this evening, could be severe. Regardless of any storms that may develop, gusty wind is likely with this system today, tonight, and Friday.
The primary issue today will be a strong wind field aloft. Any storms that get going later today will have the potential to pull down upper-level wind to the surface. Along with the potential for strong straight-line wind gusts, upper-level shear can introduce spin that can create an elevated risk of tornadoes.
Because of all this, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has the I-77 corridor in Ohio highlighted in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms later today.
Today’s risk includes an elevated (10%-15%) risk for tornadoes.
The SPC tornado risk area pretty much jives with ensemble model solutions this morning. This indicates where the greatest amount of spin and thus higher risk of severe storms today is in and around east-central Ohio, down through West Virginia, and west into eastern Kentucky.
While the ingredients for severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening are in place, much will depend on whether we can realize any appreciable clearing of the sky as the day progresses. The amount of sunshine and thus warming, will determine whether storms can reach severe criteria later in the day. A lack of clearing/sunshine today will reduce the potential for severe storms toward evening.
Regardless of whether severe storms impact the area today, it will turn windy tonight and Friday with gusts in the 35 mph to 40 mph range at times. With the soil being saturated across the region that could lead to falling trees and power outages. Gusts can be higher in any thunderstorms this evening.
Lastly, there will be plenty of moisture for showers and storms to tap into and that leads to the potential of heavy rainfall with today’s storms. The ground is already saturated from earlier heavy rain and any appreciable rain that might occur will only add to our local flooding problems.
Thankfully, any storms that develop and move through the area should travel quickly and that will reduce the threat of prolonged heavy rain. Successive storms, though, would lead to another round of high water and flooding.
LOCAL TIMING
The timing of severe weather hasn’t changed much from yesterday. The window for severe storms still looks to be between 5 pm and 9 pm. Showers and storms will develop in the southwest and travel northeast.
Hope for a cloudy day and not much sun. Stay updated today and be mindful of weather conditions late this afternoon into this evening. I’ll post updates if/when any changes occur. And, thank you for relying on TUSCWeather.
