- Posted 10:00 AM 04/14/2024
- Updated at 1:30 PM 04/14/2024 to reflect new graphics and data from the SPC.
Despite the cooler temperatures and breezy wind on Saturday, it was nice to have a dry sunny day for a change. Today (Sunday) looks to remain dry but temperatures will warm to the mid-70s during the afternoon behind a warm front that lifts through eastern Ohio this morning. By midday, temperatures in the Valley will warm under a southerly flow. Some cumulus will develop as daytime temperatures and dewpoints warm during the midday period.
A weak cold front is expected to approach from the north late today. Unlike this past Thursday, temperatures across the region will be plenty warm and unstable enough to raise chances for thunderstorms developing in northern parts of Ohio late this afternoon. These storms will likely travel south toward the Tuscarawas Valley area later this evening.
With warm temperatures, sufficient instability, and upper-level shear in place, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 on a scale of 1-5) of severe storms late this afternoon through this evening.
All modes of severe weather will be in play including damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and with ample shear available, tornadoes (5%-9% probability). A 9 percent probability doesn’t sound like much but it is several times higher than our normal zero percent risk.
LOCAL TIMING
Much of the day will be dry, warm, and pleasant. The chances for the development of storms will start to ramp up as we get into the mid to late afternoon – 4 or 5 pm – when thunderstorms bloom quickly north of our area. Current high-resolution modeling suggests these storms will develop into a discrete squall line as they travel south.
As the model animation above shows, this will move southward through our area quickly from around 6 pm to 9 pm. The threat of severe storms in our area should wind down by 11 pm/midnight.
We really don’t need any more rain but some spots could see heavy downpours as the storm system moves through. But again, it will move through quickly so any heavy rain shouldn’t last long. Flooding problems would enter the scene if storms hang up for a lengthly period in any one area.
Once this clears tonight another nice sunny day will set up for Monday with temperatures in the Valley running in the low 70s.
Enjoy the sunshine and warmth today but be weather aware and have a reliable way to receive warnings, especially late this afternoon and this evening.
