Winter Shinannagans for Thanksgiving?

I’ve mentioned in my daily Weather Brief the last couple of days about the potential for wintry mischief around Thanksgiving. I know many folks have travel plans over the long Thanksgiving holiday and will either be traveling themselves or have friends and relatives coming in during this time. So, consider this a heads-up.

All of the major computer models are now beginning to come into agreement with a low pressure system moving east out of the Plains on Wednesday. What the models don’t agree on is the placement and timing of the low so details will be forthcoming over the next several days.

What is fairly certain is that temperatures will be favorable for any precipitation to fall as snow for part or the majority. Precipitation type will rely on the track and placement and to some extent, the timing of the system.

I’ll mention that this is only one model run of the GFS. Other models have slightly different solutions and therefore, slightly different precipitation types in any one location. In this example, the center of low pressure wouldn’t have to be much farther to the north for precipitation to fall as rain.

This doesn’t have the markings of a big storm. However, it could bring some travel concerns to our area or areas outside of the Tuscarawas Valley. As of today (Saturday 11/23), the probability of one inch of snow in our location are running about 20% – 30%.

So to wrap up: It’s becoming more likely that a winter system will move through the region over the Thanksgiving holiday period. Snow, rain, or mixed precipitation are all possible with this system. It will probably be a quick-hitter. Unknowns at this time are the timing, precip types related to timing, and precipitation amounts. These will come into focus by Monday or Tuesday.

This is just a heads-up to let folks know what’s brewing. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned as this develops. Thanks for reading and relying on TUSCWeather for your local weather info. – Joe

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