Showers and storms out ahead of a cold front to our west will travel into eastern Ohio this morning. This pre-frontal moisture will prime the atmosphere, where it will become favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms as the front crosses our area later this afternoon.
The primary threat today will come from the potential for damaging wind along a squall line. The Storm Prediction Center has also introduced a low, but not zero, tornado risk (2% Probability). The current setup is not favorable for large hail development, but small hail can’t be ruled out.
Current timing for our area obtained from high-resolution models brings a squall line of thunderstorms into our area around 3:00/4:00 this afternoon. The actual front will exit southeast of our area around 6 PM/7 PM, bringing a quick end to the threat of severe weather. A few isolated showers may linger overnight.
Behind the front, we can look forward to a couple of days of dry and less humid conditions with cooler temperatures. Daytime high will run in the 70s with nighttime lows in the 50s.
By Thursday, a warm front will return higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures to the region ahead of yet another cold front. This combination, coupled with sufficient instability, may set the stage for another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves through.
We’ll be keeping an eye on this over the coming days.
Caveat: Conditions that are favorable for severe thunderstorm development do not mean that severe thunderstorms are certain or that all locations will experience severe weather. Our potential for severe weather late this afternoon will depend on the amount of clearing and, thus, sunshine that we manage to get in advance of the cold front. More clearing equals better odds of severe thunderstorms.
