Quiet and fair weather, along with low dewpoints and below-average temperatures, will continue today. The next chance of rain in and around the Tuscarawas Valley area will come after sunset this evening as a weak disturbance travels through the region. Scattered light rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible locally with this feature.
A dry and pleasant day then sets up on Wednesday as high pressure slides across east-central Ohio. Daytime temperatures should once again run in the mid-70s range.
The next system that will bring severe weather concerns to eastern Ohio will be a strong low pressure system set to cross the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Wednesday evening as the system lifts a warm front through the region.
As of the Tuesday morning model runs, there is still some uncertainty in the exact track of the low. It is likely, however, that showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
While this storm system is likely to be a big-ticket event in Illinois, Indiana, and Western Ohio on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The big question here in eastern Ohio will be how strong these storms can be as they travel into the region late Wednesday night.
Despite the uncertainty, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has parts of eastern Ohio highlighted for severe weather risk on Wednesday night. The main threat is damaging wind with a low, but not zero, isolated tornado risk. Most of the high-resolution models do suggest that thunderstorms will continue during the overnight period, but differ in intensity.
In addition to the potential of strong storms, there can also be pockets of heavy rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread flooding is not likely, but any locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could see localized flooding.
Severe weather or not, Thursday is shaping up to be very windy with gusts outside of any showers or storms in the 20 to 30 mph range, area-wide on Thursday.
So, in a nutshell, the risk of severe weather on Wednesday evening is much greater in western Ohio. It is questionable if storms can maintain severe criteria as they travel east into our area Thursday night. IF (that’s a big if) thunderstorms can remain severe in our area, damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will be possible late Wednesday night into the wee hours Thursday morning. Windy conditions with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely on Thursday outside of any showers or storms.
We’ll keep a close eye on today’s model runs to see how trends evolve over the next 24 hours. Expect some changes in the forecast going forward.
