Our short-term high-resolution models continue to suggest a batch of thunderstorms developing in western Ohio around 8:00 PM or so, associated with an advancing warm front. This activity will arrive in the east-central Ohio region around midnight, then track across the region through pre-dawn Sunday.
Although this complex of storms could bring damaging wind gusts, it will also have abundant amounts of moisture to work with. The main concern will come from the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Tuscarawas as well as all surrounding counties. Hi-res modeling suggests rainfall rates of 1.5″ to 1.75″ are possible with this complex.
SUNDAY
Much of how our weather plays out tonight and early Sunday morning will determine the evolution of our weather on Sunday. Depending on exactly where residual boundaries are left behind by tonight’s complex and how much clearing occurs on Sunday, thunderstorms could redevelop late Sunday afternoon that contain another damaging wind risk.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but there will be sufficient support for a non-zero low-end tornado threat as well. In addition, the setup for heavy rainfall will still be a factor on Sunday.
Severe storms or not, Sunday will be oppressively humid. Dew points across the region will run in the mid-70s with some locations in the upper-70s. (This tropical air mass is the reason why we have the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.)
Again, there are no guarantees we’ll see severe storms from this. A lot of Sunday’s setup will depend on tonight’s storms and whether we get enough sun on Sunday for the atmosphere to recharge.
SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY
Any thunderstorm Sunday evening should begin to subside after sunset and as the atmosphere restabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. Drier air will flow into the region behind a cold front Sunday night. This will also bring decreasing humidity levels through the daytime hours on Monday.
Clouds and a few lingering showers may hang around through Monday morning, but high pressure will build over the Great Lakes region by Monday afternoon and return dry weather. Dry conditions and fair weather are then likely to settle into the area until sometime on Wednesday.
The next rain-producing feature will arrive on Wednesday with an approaching cold front. The models indicate there will be much less moisture and instability compared to the most recent days. So, any thunderstorms related to this next system should be sub-severe. Behind this midweek front, temperatures will trend cooler than average, and dew points will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. (That sounds a lot like an autumn preview to me.)
We’ll keep an eye on things tonight for you, then take a look at how tomorrow’s severe potential might shape up. Until then, enjoy the rest of your Saturday and be safe out there.
