Posted 10:15 AM Thursday, February 11, 2021
Weak high pressure will bring a dry day to the Valley today. There can be light snow/flurries yet this morning as the system that brought snow last night continues exiting east of the area. There will even be some hazy sunshine at times during the afternoon. It will be another cold day, however. Temperatures this afternoon around the Valley will only reach the upper-20s.
Quiet weather will continue tonight with temperatures bottoming out in the mid-teens by sunrise Friday. There can be some flurries/light snow Friday morning as a little disturbance moves through the region. With the dry air we have in place it’s questionable whether and snow can reach the ground. Regardless of any morning snow, temperatures will actually warm to around freezing.
Low pressure will track northward along the east coast and a weak wave will travel across the Great Lakes on Saturday. Moisture from the system along the coast will try to work north. This may bring some light snow showers to east-central Ohio Saturday afternoon and night. Accumulation from this system looks modest but as we’ve seen, small snow amounts can bring problems.
Dry weather will return for Sunday as weak high pressure builds overhead. Cold air will be the issue with afternoon highs only getting to the low-20s. We’ll drop off to the single digits Sunday night with below-zero wind chill values.
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK?
Monday brings dry weather to start the work week. Arctic high pressure over New England will pump plenty of frigid air into the area from the north which will keep temperatures in the upper teens to around 20°.
Low pressure with a decent supply of moisture will be approaching from the south Monday night. That moisture from the south will run headstrong into our arctic airmass. As one would expect this far out, there are model differences in both the track of the southern low and it’s intensity. If the low can maintain decent strength as it enters the Ohio Valley Monday night, this could be a formattable winter storm Monday night through Tuesday.
Today is only Thursday so we have a lot of time to figure this out yet. Confidence on the track of this system will gradually increase as we get farther into the weekend. For now, it’s just something we need to be aware of because of the POTENTIAL for local impacts it will have early next week. There are many questions that lack answers at this point – The track of the low; the amount of moisture available; temperatures at the surface and aloft; forward progress of the system; etc.
The European model (shown above) is the most aggressive with the system while the GFS and Canadian models indicate a milder storm and more of a problem for the mid Atlantic region and east coast. The Euro model has been the most consistent in handling the system up to this point, however. Either way we’ll likely see some kind of wintry precipitation in the Monday night through Tuesday time frame. It’s more of a question of degree at this point.
Whatever ends up being the correct solution, it will be a quick-hitter and should exit eastern Ohio by Wednesday. The models then support a second winter storm following nearly the same setup Thursday into Friday. So, next week could end up being active with a one-two winter storm punch.
After that, temperatures look to moderate some and we may start to see them returning to normal or near-normal for the second half of the month. While it doesn’t look warm by any stretch of the imagination, it looks less cold than what we’ve experienced recently.
Thanks for reading the Valley’s only LOCAL weather discussion. Be safe out there.