Severe Weather Chances Increase This Evening and Tonight in the Tuscarawas Vallley

We can look forward to a mainly dry day today across east-central Ohio as weak high pressure sets up over the Great Lakes. Expect some clearing and peeks of sunshine at times. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to around 80°.

Also noticeable today is the humidity. Dewpoints today will get to the mid-60s as moisture streams in from the south. This warm moist air will stay with us through the daytime hours and into tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms in our area will enter the picture as showers and thunderstorms develop later this evening.

Showers and storms may come in two waves later today. A warm front is poised to lift into eastern Ohio around dinner time early this evening. A shower or thunder could move through the area along this front but the morning model runs show that any rain with this will be spotty. It’s the second round of showers and storms that will develop behind the front that brings a risk for severe storms after sunset this evening.

Storms after dark tonight could be severe and capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and even a couple of tornadoes. With all the moisture in the air, heavy downpours are also a concern. The Storm Prediction Center places our area in a Level 2 risk for severe storms tonight.

The risk of tornadoes is much higher off to our west but there is a non-zero risk for tornadoes in our area as well. A 5 percent risk doesn’t sound like much but it is much higher than zero. (The hatched area off to the west in the graphic below indicates a high concern for significant tornadoes of EF-2 or higher.)

Take special note that this is all expected after dark tonight so make sure you have a reliable way to receive any warnings.

The severe threat will move through fairly quickly and this should all be east of our area shortly after midnight. Wednesday may start out cloudy in the morning but it will become a pretty decent day – probably the only decent day of the week. If you have outdoor tasks I recommend getting them done on Wednesday if you can.

Thanks for following TUSCWeather. Enjoy the day today but be weather-aware after sunset this evening. I’ll post any updates here later this afternoon if any are needed.

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