Cold Friday but at least there’s sun; Update on Saturday’s clipper

High pressure overhead will provide a mostly sunny day across east-central Ohio to finish out the work week. Clouds today will be high cirrus from a storm system passing to our south.

Despite ample sunshine today, it will remain cold. Temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach freezing and breezy southwest winds will keep wind chills in the 10 to 20 degree range.

Dry and cold conditions will continue tonight and into Saturday morning. However, the much advertised Alberta Clipper system and its associated cold front will be approaching from the west tomorrow morning. This system will likely bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to the Tuscarawas Valley over the weekend.

CHANGES IN THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM
I’ve seen very little that would change my thinking from yesterday’s forecast. The only changes are in timing. Recent model runs have slowed the system up a bit which would slow up the onset of snow showers here in the Valley.

As a result, Saturday will be dry for the majority of the day and snow showers will hold off until late in the day. You should have no problems getting errands done Saturday morning through the mid afternoon.

Here’s how this morning’s hi-res NAM (North American Model) ‘thinks’ the radar might look like at 5:00 pm Saturday:

Realize that this probably isn’t EXACT but I do think it has the right idea bringing the onset of snow showers later in the day.

Snow showers will continue Saturday evening ending quickly Saturday night. By Sunday morning the system should be east of the region bringing an end to the snow here locally.

While changes in the timing will mean snow will held off until later in the day – perhaps even toward evening – it will not change the amount of snow I think we’ll end up getting. I’ll keep snow accumulations as I had them yesterday for now, but I may need to lower them depending on how future model runs depict interaction with that large East Coast storm system shown on the map above.

Note that snow forecasts are given a ‘range’ of possibilities. One to three inches does not mean three inches – it means we have just as good a chance of one inch as we do three inches.



TRAVEL IMPACTS
As I stated earlier, the majority of Saturday should present little problems. Snow should accumulate mostly after sunset and continue overnight. The main highways – I-77, SR-36, SR-250, etc. should fare well since they will likely be pre-treated. The county roads and back country roads will probably have some slick spots.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

  • This will NOT be a big snow producer
  • This WILL be a quick-hitter – limiting snow even more

SUNDAY & MONDAY
Cold arctic air will settle in behind the clipper and Sunday will be a cold and breezy day. Temperatures won’t get above freezing and most neighborhoods will not do much better than upper 20s to about 30 for the high. Breezy west winds gusting to 20/25 mph will make for some brutal wind chills.

Any snow on Sunday will be lake effect and limited to northern snow belt counties. We should actually see some sunshine peaking through the clouds now and then.

The next system tracks through Monday evening/Monday night. Model guidance on this one is uncertain yet but this does look to bring another good opportunity for accumulating snow. Specific snow amounts won’t come until I can get more confident in the timing and track of the low.

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