This will be a quick evening update for the winter storm that will impact the Tuscarawas Valley area late tonight through Wednesday. Today’s afternoon model runs have remained fairly consistent with regards to timing and track through the Ohio Valley of the system. There are some small changes, but generally this afternoon’s forecast still looks to be on track.
I’ve increased snow accumulation for the Valley by a couple of inches – or a general 4 to 6 inches for the Tuscarawas Valley are tonight through late day Wednesday. Most communities should see something around 5 to 6 inches.
The main reason for the slight increase in accumulation is due to snow density. Generally, most computer modeling uses a standard 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. The snow expected with tonight’s storm will be lighter than that – perhaps 15:1 or as high as 20:1 ratio. That basically means that this will not be your heavy wet snow. Rather tonight’s snow will be fairly light and easy to move around. Plus, we will squeeze more snow out of less moisture.
The other factor affecting total accumulation is forward speed of the system – this will be a quick hitter. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, but thankfully it won’t linger for much more than 6 to 8 hours. That will help keep snow accumulation from getting out of hand.
The storm will be a mostly snow producer for the Valley. I can’t rule out a few periods of freezing rain or drizzle mixing in at times, but any ice/freezing rain periods should remain relatively short. Sleet and freezing rain will be more of a problem for areas along and south of I-70.
There are no important changes with regard to timing. Expect to see snow get underway around 2:00/4:00 AM Wednesday. EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Some mixed precipitation will be possible as well.
Snow showers will taper off by late morning with everything pretty much shutting down by mid afternoon. A few residual flurries/light showers could remain through the afternoon, but generally this storm will be over for us shortly after lunch time.
LOCAL TRAVEL IMPACTS
This is going to bring a messy morning commute. It would be better if you can delay going to work a couple of hours until this thing clears out a little. Otherwise, this is going to bring periods of moderate to heavy snowfall and the roads will be messy and snow covered. Visibility will also be a factor in your morning travel.
Be patient. Road crews will be out there but it will be difficult for them to keep up with everything.