This will be a quick Saturday morning update just to catch everyone up with the latest on the heavy rain and flood potential. Moderate to heavy rainfall, mainly overnight tonight, remains on track for the Tuscarawas Valley.
An upper level disturbance will cross east-central Ohio late this morning through early afternoon bringing rain showers. After a break during the mid and late afternoon, rain showers will return this evening as a warm front lifts across the region.
Additionally, thunderstorms will be possible with the warm front this evening. No severe storms are expected here but rainfall in thunderstorms may be heavy.
Rain production this evening and tonight will be efficient. With the ground already saturated and local streams and creeks full to their banks, localized flooding issues will be likely.
Temperatures today will stay fairly steady then warm tonight behind the warm front.
FORECAST CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY
There has been only one change in the forecast since yesterday. With some disagreement, models have shifted the placement of heaviest rainfall slightly to the north. While this trend may reduce the amount of rainfall here, any reduction would be minor at best. Model projections continue to show the potential for 1.5″ to 2.0″ inches of rain over the next 24 hours.
A slight shift to the north would also have an impact on water levels for the Tuscarawas River at Dover Dam and New Philadelphia. Stillwater Creek is forecast to reach moderate flood on Sunday.
Folks along Stillwater Creek should continue to monitor flood potential as it develops Sunday and be prepared to take action.
The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Flood Watch in effect for Tuscarawas, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton. Harrison, Jefferson, Muskingum, Guernsey, Belmont, Noble Counties until Sunday Evening.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Our wet weather will come to an end Sunday with a cold front sweeping through east-central Ohio. Cooler and much drier air will replace the moisture as high pressure builds in leading to clearing and sunshine. The sunshine will continue Monday and Tuesday keeping our daytime temperature above normal through the period.