No day will be a wash out but occasional showers and thunderstorms can be expected all week as a series of upper-level disturbances ride along a meandering frontal boundary. Repeated rounds of showers and storms will increase the potential for localized flooding as the ground becomes increasingly saturated.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be pretty much the norm across east-central Ohio as a series of upper-level disturbances interact with a stalled frontal boundary. Since so much of our weather will be dependent on where the frontal boundary is at any given time, timing and placement of thunderstorms and rain will be difficult to determine any time other than the short term.
For today, guidance indicates the best odds for showers and storms here in the Valley will be through the mid to late afternoon period. These will be leftovers from last night and early morning thunderstorms in eastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. As these travel east, they should lose some of their punch but re-strengthen some in the moist and unstable atmosphere that will be over east-central and southern Ohio.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are certainly possible. The Storm Prediction Center has our area of east-central Ohio highlighted in the EHHANCED Risk (3/5) category.
Strong gusty wind will be the primary threat with today’s storms. Heavy rain and hail are also possible with these storms. Tornadoes are not expected to be a threat.
Today’s storms will move through quickly. The most active part of the day looks to be around 2:00 PM this afternoon with a cluster of thunderstorms moving through and exiting the area around 5:00 or 6:00. Simulated radar from the hi-res model through midnight:
Behind this afternoon’s storms, dry conditions should continue into Tuesday morning.
[NOTE: NWS Pittsburgh will conduct a special balloon launch this afternoon at noon to better assess the condition of the atmosphere. I’ll post an afternoon update should conditions warrant.]
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Tuesday as another wave ripples along the omnipresent frontal boundary. The boundary is forecast to sag south tomorrow which may change the focus for storms to the I-70 corridor and points south. For now, I’ll wait for late day hi-res model runs for placement and timing of the strongest thunderstorms.
By Wednesday our boundary should be well south of east-central Ohio. Differences in modeling will lead to changes in the forecast depending on where exactly the boundary settles. For now, I’ve decided to go with the drier NAM (North American Model) forecast. I’m hopeful that Wednesday will be the driest day this week with maybe even some occasional sun. Stand by for changes, though.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
With that boundary sticking around and wobbling north and south of the Ohio Valley, odds for periodic showers and storms will continue through the late week and the weekend.