The remnants of Alberto are located near Evansville, Indiana this morning. The morning guidance suggests the system will move into the upper Great Lakes region by tonight. Alberto still remains classified as a tropical depression despite being over land for a few days. Radar and satellite observations indicate that it will continue to maintain organized circulation as it travels northward today.
A warm and humid airmass remains in place over east-central Ohio and it will only get juicier as Alberto lifts a warm front through the region today. Winds will shift out of the south by afternoon pushing in additional moisture.
Despite the center of Alberto being far to our west, copious amounts of moisture will flow northward in the southerly flow created by the system. And, while modelling has consistently showing rain totals here of around an inch or so, this may be underdone given the amount of moisture available for rain.
Any thunderstorms that happen to cross the region today will be efficient rain producers. East-central Ohio region will be in a position for periods of locally heavy rainfall – especially during the afternoon when scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely.
Here is an idea of how the radar might look like today through midnight tonight:
Shear and instability look to be less than optimal for severe weather, but an isolated gusty thunderstorm can’t be completely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center afternoon update has all of east-central Ohio highlighted for a Marginal Risk.
As for flood issues, it has been sufficiently dry the last 7 days. Widespread flooding should not be an issue. However, isolated instances of minor flooding are certainly possible especially if an area finds itself under a thunderstorm.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage should decrease this evening after sunset as instability weakens with the loss of heating. A weak disturbance crossing tonight will keep the threat for scattered showers in the region as Alberto tracks into the upper Great Lakes region.
By Thursday a second upper-level disturbance will ride through the region. With such an abundant amount of tropical moisture readily available, showers and thunderstorms will again be likely – primarily in the afternoon and evening. These too will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Shear and instability will be a little higher tomorrow afternoon and evening resulting in a slightly better chance for a gusty thunderstorm.
Yet another upper-level disturbance ripples through on Friday and this one will be accompanied by a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Friday but coverage should be less than Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will be cooler and drier air will replace the current humid conditions for the weekend.