Warm and sunny again for Monday; Shower and storm chances return Tuesday

Expect another day of deep blue skies over east-central Ohio today. Temperatures will also be a little warmer than yesterday with most areas getting into the upper 80s this afternoon. It will also start to turn a little sticky as dew points increase to the mid-60s While it will certainly not get as muggy as last week the increase in humidity will be noticeable.

Temperatures will be warmer tonight as well dropping off to the mid 60s by early Tuesday morning under mostly clear skies.

TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK
The noticeable increase in moisture today will remain on Tuesday and provide the fuel for a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak cold front. Drier air in the mid levels overhead will keep the threat for severe weather in check. Any strong storms tomorrow would be isolated occurrences.

 

Damaging wind is the main threat with tomorrow’s thunderstorms but hail also looks possible. It’s worth noting that the SPC has broadened the marginal risk area since releasing their original outlook early this morning. The marginal risk area now includes all east-central Ohio counties.

While a morning shower or storm can’t be ruled out, the best window of opportunity for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly sunny for the majority of the day. The simulated radar product from this morning’s NAM (North American Model) shows the scattered nature of tomorrow’s storms. Coverage and intensity look to increase as the storms push south of the Tuscarawas Valley late in the afternoon.

The cold front departs south of the region Tuesday evening and activity will quickly end as high pressure once again moves into the region by Wednesday morning. That will bring a return to dry and clear weather to the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday may bring an increase in clouds as a disturbance pushes through. Warm air in the mid levels will provide a cap to keep chances for any showers or storms to develop.

Wednesday’s temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the low 80s and by Thursday will warm back up to the mid 80s.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Differences in modeling will mean lower confidence for the mid range forecast. The latest computer runs have shown a frontal system or boundary of sorts moving through on Friday. And, with support for any rain or storms looking weak, I’ll keep chances for precipitation out of the Friday forecast for now. I’ll revisit later modeling over the next days to see if this little feature continues in future model runs.

With a hot and humid airmass returning for the weekend and a couple of disturbances riding through, a shower or thunderstorm will certainly be possible just about anytime Saturday and Sunday. Again, model discrepancies keep confidence in the forecast pretty low.

AG TRENDS
Ensemble temperature trends indicate a warm and above average July temperature pattern will continue through mid-month.

The most significant chances for precipitation will be on Tuesday with the front. Generally speaking, any chances for appreciable rainfall over the next week is meager at best. The heaviest rainfall will remain off the Carolina Coast with Chris.

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