A warm and muggy start to the first day of a new work week. Dew points this morning are in the low 70s making it feel very sticky out there. There are changes for the better headed our way tonight in the form of a cold front. Unfortunately, the front will bring some active weather to east-central Ohio later today and tonight.
We will be warm and muggy again today ahead of the front and we won’t have any weather problems the majority of the day. Temperatures across the Valley will heat up to the upper 80s to near 90 in most neighborhoods.
With the very humid air in place, heat index values will get to the mid to upper 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms will fire up as the frontal boundary creeps closer this afternoon. Moderate instability and wind shear will raise the odds that a few thunderstorms, mainly late this afternoon and this evening, could get feisty.
Gusty wind and hail are the main threats. There is not much wind aloft that would otherwise push storms along so today’s storms will be slow-movers. Places that get under a storm today could see torrential rain with rainfall rates as much as two inches per hour. Frequent lightning is also something to watch out for.
There is not a big risk for severe storms here in the Valley today, but an isolated strong storm or two is something we’ll need to watch for this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center places the greatest odds for a strong or severe storm just to our north.
Instability will weaken once the sun sets later tonight. This should allow thunderstorms to weaken overnight. Hi-res Futurecast radar for today until midnight:
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into early Tuesday morning before high pressure clears things out completely. Cooler and drier air will drop in behind the front on Tuesday. The warm and very humid air in place today will get pushed out leaving us with improving weather through the day. Dew points will slide downward. Afternoon high temperatures across the Valley will be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
Wednesday will be even cooler with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s under bright sun. We warm up to the low to mid-80s by Thursday. Most noticeable will be the lack of humidity.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
Low pressure out of the Plains will drift across the Great Lakes over the weekend. The low will drag another cold front across Ohio on Saturday. In short, the weekend looks active and wet with periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. The best odds for showers and storms will be on Saturday afternoon and evening with the front.
While the rain comes at a bad time, we do need it. Some areas are very dry – especially western portions of Tuscarawas County where rainfall is 50% to 70% below normal. At this point and our gardens and lawns, as well as our farm fields, could use a good soaking.
Temperatures, in the long run, will be, well, not all that hot. By late July standards, anyway. Current model projections show temperatures more toward seasonal averages through the end of the month.