Conditions have changed a bit and it is becoming a little more favorable for severe weather in the Tuscarawas Valley later today.
Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross southeast through the region tonight. Some of those storms will approach our area this evening. While we will be loosing SOME of the energy for strong thunderstorms, instability and wind shear will remain elevated enough for storms to keep their punch.
In response, the Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of our area.
The primary threat comes from gusty winds and downdrafts. Heavy rainfall will also be something to watch out for. This evening’s storms should move along fairly quickly so prolonged heavy rain and flooding is not a big concern. Tornadoes, while still possible in thunderstorms, are not a big threat today.
The threat for severe thunderstorms is greater in northern Ohio counties and a Watch may be issued for northern portions of the state this afternoon. The odds for severe weather are higher there because thunderstorms will be moving through earlier in the evening when instability is highest.
The latest guidance from our high-resolution models suggests thunderstorms will be knocking on our door around 8:00 PM this evening.
The most active thunderstorms should exit the area by midnight. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the pre-dawn hours of Friday.
Although the threat is not extreme in our area, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. Remain weather aware after dinner time and have at least two ways to receive severe weather warnings should they be issued for our area.