Widespread rain will continue tapering off from west to east during the morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers will remain a threat into the nighttime hours as the entire system slowly moves through the Great Lakes.
The remnant low associated with tropical storm Gordon brought steady rain to east-central Ohio over the weekend. The extended period of rain is coming to an end and the Flood Watch issued earlier in the weekend has been canceled this morning.
Total rainfall for the area exceeded 3 inches in most spots across the Valley but so far, no major problems have been reported that I’ve seen. Luckily we managed to avoid the heaviest rainfall bands leaving us with steady light to moderate rainfall through the storm.
The average rainfall for the month is 3.27 inches in New Phila. So, essentially, we received about a month’s worth of rain in the last three days.
Light showers, sprinkles, and drizzle will continue through much of the morning as the low slowly pulls north and drags a weak cold front across the region.
Our weather will gradually improve through the day. Rain will steadily taper off and pretty much come to an end sometime this afternoon. By tonight the whole system should be north of Lake Erie, but I can’t rule out a spot of drizzle or light rain into the night as moisture continues to wrap around the system. Simulated futurecast radar through 1:00 AM Tuesday:
With skies remaining mostly overcast and the high moisture present, temperatures today will remain fairly cool for the time of year. Most neighborhoods should get to around 65/67 this afternoon.
Weather conditions will continue to improve Tuesday and Wednesday as weak high pressure moves into northern Ohio. Tuesday looks like a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will warm to the low 70s with some occasional sunshine. Wednesday will bring afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and a better chance of seeing less cloudiness.
Water along the Tuscarawas River will continue to rise as runoff from the weekend rain flows in over the next few days. The good news is flood is not expected. Water along the river will increase, however.
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
Confidence in the forecast for the second half of the week and into the weekend is a little shaky. While an upper-level ridge of high pressure should bring fair weather to east-central Ohio, a lot of the mid-range forecast will depend on Hurricane Florence.
The long range and National Hurricane Center projections suggest there is an increasing chance that Florence will approach and maybe even make landfall somewhere along the Carolina Coast. This is far from New Philadelphia (about 700 miles) but Florence could still end up being an influence on our weather here in the Valley.
For now, the weekend forecast will remain dry with that mid-level ridge in place. The path of Florence will depend on who is stronger – the mid-level ridge or the hurricane. Until the models can come to some sort of agreement on the placement and intensity of the two systems, the forecast for our area will be questionable. A strong enough ridge would recurve Florence and essentially block her effects from reaching east-central Ohio.
The bottom line – It is still too early to know if Florence will have any impacts here. There is hardly any confidence in the weekend outlook and there will likely be changes as we get later in the week.