Chilly, cloudy Tuesday; Wintry mix Thursday may include freezing rain

Well, I didn’t see that coming. The weather system that was supposed to bring a little snow and rain to east-central Ohio fizzled out. The reason? Much drier air than what was anticipated migrated into the region and effectively prevented the bulk of precipitation from reaching the ground.

While my forecast for snow and rain did not pan out, I’m still pretty happy that we didn’t get any snow.

I still can’t rule out a light shower or some drizzle yet this morning but for the most part, our weather will gradually begin to dry out today.  Clouds will hang tough until tonight when we should begin to see some clearing taking place as high-pressure shifts east. The exception will be areas in northeastern Ohio counties where lake effect snow will develop as colder air moves in this afternoon.

With that aforementioned colder air spilling in, temperatures this afternoon won’t budge much. We may see a degree or two increase, but it will remain chilly with highs in the upper 30s.

High pressure will bring the sun back on Wednesday, but temperatures will remain 10°F to 15°F below average. Afternoon highs will do well to hit the 35° mark.

The storm system I touched on in yesterday’s update is still on track to bring wintry weather to east-central Ohio on Thursday. As of this morning, there are still some differences between the major models regarding the path and timing. Although confidence is low at this point, we will likely have to deal with a mixed bag of wintry precipitation as this system moves up the east coast. It’s just a matter of when and how much.

Early Thursday morning run of the GFS model. It must be noted that differences remain between the models regarding the track and timing of this system.

There is some good news. The latest model runs have slowed the system up slightly. Timing, along with the exact track of the parent low, will have major impacts on precipitation types we actually end up getting.

With all that being said, there are concerns for a variety of wintry precipitation types. The biggest concern is the potential for freezing rain. This will be less of a concern if the models continue to slow down the system. The later precipitation gets underway, the less the potential for freezing rain becomes.

The opportunity for freezing rain will occur during the morning and may continue into lunchtime. Ice accretion on solid surfaces will be light – 0.01″ to 0.02″. That will be enough to cause slippery conditions on untreated roads but the main (treated) roads should be fine. The threat of power lines coming down is fairly low. However, small and weak tree branches are a bit more vulnerable.

Later in the afternoon, air temperatures will warm enough that all precipitation should fall as rain. Rain then will change to snow showers Thursday night.  Air temperatures are likely to stay just above freezing overnight which will limit accumulation. Still, an inch of snow would be possible.

Snow may linger into Friday morning before the whole shebang exits the region and we start to dry things out Friday afternoon.

CAVEAT: This is a developing system and questions remain on the timing and track. Expect changes in the forecast.

After a short calm and dry period Friday night, odds for rain will return Saturday with a cold front. Rain again will change over to snow Saturday night. Temperatures will warm all the way to the mid 40s!

Dry conditions along with spotty sunshine return Sunday with temperatures in the upper 30s.

Cold temperatures will remain through the next week or so. Then, milder temperatures look to arrive around Thanksgiving. While it won’t be shorts and tee shirt weather, at least it doesn’t look as cold as it has been lately.




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