Talking snow and cold on a Saturday afternoon

Several rounds of snow showers are expected into early next week as a couple of weak systems move through. A strong cold front crosses Tuesday, bringing an outbreak of arctic air that will linger into next weekend.

As we discussed in yesterday’s update, the first of several little systems is tracking through east-central Ohio this afternoon. Generally, light snow will continue with this system through the afternoon and into this evening. Local accumulation will be light but with temperatures holding in the mid-20s, any snow that falls will stick.

Our second little low will track through the region tonight. This one is a bit stronger and has a little more moisture to work with. As such, we can expect another round of accumulating snowfall late tonight. Snowfall rates could be moderate at times.

Tonight’s system will push through fairly quickly and even though snow may fall at a pretty good clip at times, it will be brief. That should limit accumulation to around an inch or so. Futurecast radar through 5:00 AM Sunday:

A few lingering snow showers are likely to persist into Sunday morning but the general trend through the day will be decreasing odds for snow.

While accumulating snow tonight and Sunday shouldn’t amount to much more than an inch or two, even small amounts can have impacts. Watch for slick spots as you head out for Sunday morning services.

MONDAY’S STRONG CLIPPER
Our focus then turns to the much-advertised Monday weather system that will usher in some serious cold for midweek and beyond.

Save for random light snow or flurries, the better part of Monday looks mostly dry. Temperatures will warm some with a warm front lifting through pushing temperatures to the upper 30s Monday afternoon.

There remains some uncertainty on how far north warm air will spread as precipitation gets underway late in the day Monday. It is likely that there will be enough warm air here in the Valley and precipitation may start out as rain or perhaps mixed. And, at this point, a brief period of freezing rain can’t be ruled out.

Any liquid will change over to snow late Monday night as the system’s cold front crosses. While this system won’t produce any big snow, it will likely impact your Tuesday morning commute.

Snow will impact the region but the big impact from this system will be the extreme cold that follows. True arctic air will funnel in behind the front. Temperatures starting out in the mid-20s Tuesday will fall through the day. By Tuesday night we’ll be looking at below-zero lows. Wednesday’s afternoon temperatures will likely hover around 0°.

Winds will turn gusty on Wednesday bring wind chill values to at least the minus teens. Some model projections go as low as -25° with the wind chill. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s certainly not out of the question. This is ludicrous cold!

Thursday morning will begin with the coldest temperatures of the season. We might – might – warm to about 10° but even that is wishful. The cold will start to ease some as we head into the weekend, but temperatures even close to average will be only a wish.

Our only saving grace will be the fact that this arctic airmass is really dry. There will be opportunities for occasional bouts of snow late in the week, but these will generally be unimpressive and light.

FOR FOLKS WHO ARE ONLY CONCERNED WITH SNOW AMOUNTS: I’ll stress that there are model differences regarding the timing and position of the Monday/Tuesday low and exact snow numbers will be affected by that nose of warm air I mentioned for Monday. These factors will come into focus by Sunday and I’ll have some numbers for you.

I’ll also mention that the coldest low temperature (NOT wind chill) I could find for New Philadelphia on record was -22° recorded on January 19th and 20th, 1994.

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