Dry and warm today but rain showers move into the region tonight

Rain arrives tonight with the passage of a cold front, however above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. Periods of rain are forecast mid week which could lead to high water.

Monday brings a dry and mostly sunny day. Clouds will increase late this afternoon ahead of our next weak cold front that will cross east-central Ohio tonight. Rain showers will accompany the front but these should end Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today under a southerly breeze. Highs this afternoon should peak at around 60 or so in most neighborhoods. The record high today in New Phila is 58° set in 1991 and it’s very likely to be broken.

As mentioned, rain showers move in after sunset this evening. Temperatures will remain warm enough that we won’t need to be concerned with ice or snow. Tuesday will bring another dry day with a mix of sun and clouds with cooler temperatures behind the cold front.

RAIN RETURNS MIDWEEK
The cold front that crossed Monday night will stall out over the mid-Atlantic Tuesday night. As low pressure advances out of the Rockies, it will lift the front back through east-central Ohio as a warm front. A southerly flow sets back up pumping another round of warm air back into the region on Wednesday. Rain showers will also return Wednesday morning with the boundary.

Recent model runs have come into better agreement in keeping temperatures warm here in the Valley, so the concern for freezing rain has pretty much evaporated. Freezing rain will remain a threat for Ohio counties further north.

NAM (North American Model) DEPICTION of rain showers Wednesday morning. Temperatures are forecast to be warm enough to support rain in east-central Ohio. Freezing rain will be a concern in northern Ohio.

The warm front will take its good old time keeping the threat for rain for the majority of the day Wednesday. Showers should gradually taper off and become scattered by late afternoon.

An upper-level disturbance will ride through the frontal boundary on Thursday to keep rain showers going. This one has some hefty amounts of moisture and raises the concern for periods of heavy rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible late this week across central and southern portions of Ohio. 1.5″ to 2″ of rain will be possible. The saturated ground in the affected region may lead to some flooding issues.

The location of where our slow-moving front is during this period will determine who gets dumped on. Today’s modeling suggests central Ohio is the prime target. Recent snowmelt and rain earlier in the week will mean saturated ground so the potential for flooding enters the picture.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
Colder temperatures return on Friday as our front finally gets pushed east. Remaining rain showers on Friday will transition to snow as temperatures cool. The snow will be short-lived, however, and we’re not expecting anything impactful.

Saturday will be a quiet and dry day. The next system will approach on Sunday bringing a cloudier but dry day but with colder air in place and a good deal of moisture with this next system, wintry precipitation looks to return Sunday night and Monday.


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