A snowstorm on Sunday? Maybe. What we know today

Our computer models have shifted abruptly over the last 18 hours and more than a few have indicated that a substantial winter storm may affect portions of the eastern US on Sunday.

While the major models agree on a storm developing over the weekend, they do not agree on the track of the system. The track will be a huge factor on how this system affects our weekend weather in east-central Ohio.

Here is what we know and what we DO NOT know today (Thursday):

I’m already beginning to see snow accumulation forecasts on a few weather apps. In all honesty, NO ONE knows where this storm is headed yet.

Most national weather apps rely on raw computer model data for their forecasts, so take any snow accumulation forecast you see for our area with a big grain of salt. Depending on which model your app uses, snow forecast totals can be ridiculously high or ridiculously low.

There is a lot that can (will) change in the coming days but someone will get some snow and wintry mixed precipitation from this. Maybe us – maybe not us.

[UPDATE] WEDNESDAY LATE DAY: Today’s late day model runs continue to indicate a decent snow hit through southern Ohio on Sunday. It’s still too early for a snow forecast, but confidence is increasing that accumulating snow will impact east-central Ohio on Sunday. [END UPDATE]

There is one factor we are confident about. A strong cold front will cross the region Saturday night. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday and into early next week behind this front.

I’ll keep you posted as this system develops and tracks east over the next few days.

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