Tuscarawas Valley Weather Update for Thursday 04/11/2019

Strong low pressure that will bring blizzard conditions to the Plains today. This system will have an impact on our local weather on Friday as it exits the Plains tonight and heads northeast into the Great Lakes region.

For today, though, we can expect dry weather across east-central Ohio. A warm front will lift northward through the area today and that will bring warm temperatures to the Valley this afternoon. Most neighborhoods will get well into the low 70s for the afternoon high. There will be more clouds than yesterday but still sufficient sunshine to help warm things up for us.

Winds will begin to pick up late today with the front and it will become breezy tonight. Temperatures tonight will remain relatively mild with local lows in the upper-50s to around 60°. Our southern communities are more likely to remain in the 60° range.

FRIDAY
We will start out dry tomorrow morning but a cold front associated with that strong low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes will bring an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

There are questions regarding the potential for a few stronger storms with this system here in the Valley. This morning’s model runs continue with a trend toward more sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon and this might lead to higher instability ahead of the front.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of our area under a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms mainly just to the east of the Valley. However, depending on how much sun we manage to get tomorrow, this could change.

A Marginal Risk means it’s a low (1/5) risk but a risk just the same. The main threat will come from damaging wind gusts.

Whether or not we see any severe storms or not, the wind will become quite gusty tomorrow. Winds out of the south will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 30 mph at times. Any storms that happen to develop could potentially pull down higher gusts.

TIMING
While a spotty shower will be possible anytime tomorrow, the main thunderstorm activity will hold off until early afternoon. Current guidance suggests we can expect to hear thunder after 2:00 PM. Simulated radar snapshot for 3:00 PM from the NAM3Km:

The threat for showers and storms will end quickly Friday evening as the front exits.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
The cold front that brings showers and storms to our area tomorrow will stall out over Virginia on Saturday. The result for us here in the Valley will be a nice spring day with temperatures in the upper 60s Saturday afternoon.

That cold front will do an about-face on Sunday and return as a warm front. Rain showers will likely spread into east-central Ohio Sunday and persist into Monday before a ridge of high pressure returns dry weather on Tuesday.

Temperatures Saturday through Sunday look to remain in the upper 60s for the afternoon high. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Monday.

I will continue to monitor the potential for strong thunderstorms today and tonight for changes and will publish an update early Friday with the latest info. For now, though, the threat for any severe storms in our area tomorrow is very low.

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