Tuesday Morning Update: Timing today’s thunderstorms

A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to east-central Ohio today. Dry weather and cooler temperatures will return on Wednesday.

We have sunshine this morning but radar does show a small batch of showers and maybe even some thunder just west of the Valley. [9:07AM EDIT: I had one report of pea-size hail around the Dover area with a morning rain shower.]

We do have a cold front well off to our west in Indiana this morning and that will continue to push east into Ohio today. The front will bring showers and thunderstorms to east-central Ohio later this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center does have parts of our area under a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms with this system. A marginal risk is the lowest risk on their scale (1/5).

What this basically means is that a couple of thunderstorms could get a little feisty and maybe severe. The main threats in these storms will come from gusty wind but small hail is also a possibility in today’s storms.

This morning’s high-resolution model guidance is not all that impressive. It does indicate a band of weak activity moving through east-central Ohio in the 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM time frame. This timing has been fairly consistent in recent runs of both hi-res models.

Showers and thunderstorms will push south and east of our area rather quickly and the threat for any strong storms will diminish after 8:00 PM.

Otherwise, it will be a warmer than average day here in the Valley. Temperatures this afternoon will get to the 73° – 75° range.

Our cold front will hang up south of Ohio as high pressure builds over the region on Wednesday. Tomorrow will be a sunny spring day in the Valley but afternoon temperatures will run about 10 degrees cooler than today.

That stalled cold front to our south will then do a 180 and travel back north on Thursday. The threat for showers will return Thursday afternoon and it’s looking like a good bet for rain Thursday night.

Temperatures through the period will run in the mid to upper 60s.

So just to recap things, although a quick shower is possible this morning, the main threat for a strong thunderstorm will arrive later this afternoon. It’s a low threat but one none-the-less. Gusty wind and small hail may accompany the afternoon and early evening storms.



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