Tuscarawas Valley Weather Update for Thursday 05/23/2019

A second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon through this evening as a cold front pushes southeast through east-central Ohio. Some storms could be strong to severe with gusty wind and hail. Quiet weather will return tonight with sunshine and cooler temperatures slated for Friday.

While the line of storms that moved east through east-central Ohio was not severe, severe thunderstorms did impact portions of eastern Ohio. Storm reports from the Cleveland NWS office of high winds knocking down trees were fairly common. I saw a report of trees down on a house in Canton and several other communities in northeast Ohio. NWS also reported several 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts in northern Ohio.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east through the east-central Ohio region for the remainder of the morning. We can expect a break in storm activity this afternoon but it looks like thunderstorms may re-develop late in the afternoon or early this evening as a cold front over Lake Erie pushes southeast.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front as upper levels of the atmosphere becomes unstable and temperatures warm ahead of the front. Thunderstorms this evening will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. While the risk for tornadoes is not really impressive, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has eastern Ohio highlighted in the Slight Risk (2/5) category, mainly for the storms we’re expecting this evening.

A lot will depend on whether there is enough clearing this afternoon and how much the atmosphere can recover from this morning’s activity. Sunshine this afternoon will not be our friend. The more sun we get, the warmer temperatures will climb and the more unstable upper levels will become.

I am a bit concerned that high-resolution modeling continues to indicate an elevated tornado parameter through central Ohio this evening. This raises concerns for rotating storms. Again, this is assuming that we end up with a period of decent sunshine this afternoon.

I’ll continue to monitor our weather situation through the rest of today. If it looks to be a problem tornado-wise, I’ll post an update and push it out to subscribers.

Despite any thunderstorms developing late, the wind will become gusty tonight. Some wind gusts might get as high as 20 to 25 MPH. Any thunderstorms will move out of the region as the front clears leaving us with clearing skies.

High pressure will bring a nice spring day for the Valley on Friday. Temperatures will be a tad cooler behind the cold front. Still, I’ll happily take sunshine and mid-70s with less humidity. We keep dry conditions going through Friday night.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Another warm front pushes through the region Saturday. I have low chances for a shower with this feature but we will see afternoon temperatures warm up behind the front Saturday afternoon. It will also turn noticeably more humid.

However, another weak cold front approaches from the northwest and this may fire off another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. I’m not real confident in how this might play out yet, but if you have outdoor plans, take into account that there may be a few scattered showers and t-storms around.┬áThe SPC does have all of northern Ohio in Slight Risk (2/5) for severe storms Saturday.

The main threats come from gusty winds in thunderstorms on Saturday. To a lesser extent, large hail might be possible as well.

A stronger front will cross Sunday afternoon. Again, thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible on Sunday too. Model guidance with regards to timing is still a bit iffy on Sunday. But, we can pretty much figure the afternoon and evening will be the times of greatest concern.

Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will generally peak in the low 80s both days. Sunday will be the warmer day by a couple of degrees.

Memorial Day looks to be the pick day of the long weekend. Weak high pressure will bring dry weather back to the Valley and afternoon temperatures should reach the low-80s.

Since we’re getting back to a summerlike weather pattern, it’s time to bring out the dew point graphic again. Just as we start the unofficial summer, it’s looking rather muggy through the weekend.

And, we can expect warm temperatures through the weekend as well.

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