Published 9:13 AM Sunday 06/23/2019
Edited 10:47 AM Sunday 06/23/2019
Edited 3:28 PM 06/23/2019 to include 1730Z SPC threat map.
Sunday will bring another nice summer day to the Valley. Afternoon temperatures will be near 80°.
High pressure will shift east today allowing a warm front to lift into Ohio tonight. Clouds will increase late today and showers are possible late tonight/early Monday morning with the front. The atmosphere remains fairly stable so we’re not expecting much in the way of thunder with this system.
Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will move through the region Monday morning but we should see a break in the rain in the afternoon for a while. Depending on how much clearing can occur, the atmosphere will destabilize ahead of a cold front that will approach late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the front Monday afternoon and evening.
With a humid and unstable airmass in place, severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the late afternoon and evening. The potential for severe storms will depend on how much clearing we manage to get during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat but small hail is also possible.
Today’s guidance puts the timing for severe weather after 6:00 PM but that is likely to change somewhat. I’ll have a better idea of the timing tomorrow morning as this comes into range of the hi-resolution model.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off and end Monday night and dry weather is expected to return on Tuesday.
Temperatures look to become more ‘summery’ this week.