Timing Saturday’s Rain

Despite a moderate deck of clouds, Friday should remain dry across the Valley. Dry air in place overhead will confine any precipitation that develops well to our north and mainly east of Lake Erie. Sun today will be limited if we see any at all and this will work to hold our afternoon highs to around 63°/65°.

Today’s clouds originate from a deepening low pressure system located along the Gulf Coast this morning. This system will track northeast today and tonight and continue through the Great Lakes region on Saturday and Sunday. With a strong southerly flow setting up it will have the potential to bring abundant Gulf moisture as it tracks toward Indiana and Ohio Saturday afternoon.

GFS MODEL PROJECTION of a strengthening low pressure system out of the Gulf spreading rain into the Great Lakes and east-central Ohio by Saturday afternoon.

As the low travels through the region we can expect a pretty decent slug of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning here in the Valley. A few rumbles of thunder late Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday can’t be ruled out either, but widespread thunderstorms are not likely. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times – especially late Saturday and Saturday night. You may want to take some time today to clear your gutters and drains of leaves.

Although there remains some differences in timing between the models, I’ve split the difference and plotted what I think are our odds for rain.

Winds out of the east Saturday afternoon will pick up and shift southeast Saturday night as the system’s cold front approaches. It will turn breezy with winds in the 10 to 15 mph range. Gusts could be a bit stronger locally but the strongest wind looks to set up east of our area.

Low pressure and its associated cold front are set to exit east of the area Sunday morning. Rain will taper off through mid-morning on Sunday, ending Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build in overhead Sunday night bringing dry conditions back to the Valley.

Total rain amounts with this are fairly impressive and we could end up with around an inch to 1.5 inches of rain locally.

National Weather Service total rainfall forecast through Sunday evening.

Dry weather will continue Monday and Tuesday under high pressure. Expect temperatures to hover right around average.

UPDATE ON NEXT WEEK’S STORM SYSTEM
I touched a little about a storm system that is forecast to track out of the Plains into Ohio around the mid to latter part of next week. Unfortunately, the modeling of this system continues to be anything but agreeable with regard to timing. The European on Canadian models are the most consistent and bring rain back into the region Wednesday into Thursday.

For now, we’ll call for mid chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday but I expect adjustments to the forecast as details come more into focus. The only thing I’m confident of at this point is the colder air that will move in for next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.

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