Sunny and dry today; Clouds and chances for rain through the rest of the week

Temperatures should clock in at just below average today as an upper-level low tracks east. About all we will end up with here today will be clouds. Moisture associated with this feature will remain well to our south. Afternoon highs will top out at around 50° or so locally.

After a dry night tonight, a cloudy November day sets up for Tuesday as another in a series of upper-level low pressure systems moves through the region. There is just a bit more moisture with this one so a light shower or drizzle tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday night can’t be ruled out. Current guidance suggests any rain/drizzle won’t arrive until late in the afternoon.

GFS MODEL IDEA for Tuesday evening. An upper-level low may bring spotty light showers/drizzle to east-central Ohio through Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday night will remain warm enough to support any precipitation as rain/drizzle. Weak high pressure will nose in early Wednesday morning bringing an end to any precipitation locally. A weak northwest flow over the Great Lakes will keep Wednesday a cloudy day here in the Valley. As a result of the cloud cover, it will be cooler than today Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next system moves out of the southwest US and travels into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. This system and its associated cold front will bring our best odds for rain overspreading east-central Ohio. Chances will gradually increase through the day Thursday with showers becoming likely by Thursday afternoon. Showers will continue into Thursday night before exiting the area after midnight.

GFS MODEL DEPICTION Thursday evening. Low pressure track across the Great Lakes trailing a cold front. Showers will be likely Thursday into Thursday night.

Warm southerly air ahead of the system’s cold front will push temperatures into the mid-50s on Thursday. It will likely be THE warmest day of the week. Those south winds can be a little breezy as well with some gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range so expect a wet and breezy Thursday evening.

As for snow potential, currently I think temperatures will be warm enough to support rain here in the Valley. Colder air will move in behind the front Friday night but by then it looks like that colder air will arrive too late for snow to develop. I can’t say that about areas north of the Valley. Moisture might just linger long enough in northeast Ohio for a brief snow shower in those counties.

Temperatures on Friday will be around ten degrees colder behind the cold front. Clouds will be slow to clear out despite weak high pressure building in Friday afternoon but it appears we will stay dry through Friday night.

Uncertain weekend forecast: After a brief period of dry weather Friday and Friday night, another storm system tracks northeastward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. There are model differences regarding the timing and track of this system and as a result, there is low confidence in the weekend forecast. The timing and track will be important factors in determining whether we see rain, snow, or a mix of both with this one.

For today’s forecast, I’ve leaned toward the European solution and kept a cold rain as the system tracks southwest to northeast through Ohio. We may see cold air wrap around enough on the backend to allow for a changeover to snow. Then again, a dry slot might wrap around bringing an end to precipitation. Seriously, right now it’s a crapshoot.

EUROPEAN MODEL DEPICTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT brings cold air and wrap-around snow to northeast Ohio. The exact track of this system is still in question at this time and the potential for snow in east-central Ohio is uncertain.

Weather apps will not help you much here. Those will follow whatever model they are based on. If they’re using the GFS as their forecast model, the whole system will track way too far south and we’ll not see any rain at all. Hopefully, the models will come into better agreement with this weather system in the next couple of days. Until then, no one has a handle on the weekend weather.

It’s way too early to focus on precipitation, but the climate models do suggest that a colder-than-average temperature pattern will continue into next week leading up to Thanksgiving.

Global models are picking up on a significant storm system moving through the Great Lakes region late next week. It is way too early for specifics, but it is something we’re keeping a close eye on. I’ll keep you posted but for now, it’s just something to watch because of its potential impact on Thanksgiving travel.



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