Colder air arrives today

The area received a nice decent slug of rain from yesterday’s system. Generally speaking, it looks like a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain fell total locally. The rain has since moved off to the east and we should stay cloudy but dry today. Any snow showers behind the system this afternoon will set up mainly in the far northeastern Ohio counties.

The system’s cold front sunk through the east-central Ohio region this morning. High temperatures in the upper-30s will decrease through the day as colder air flows in from the northeast. By late this afternoon when folks begin heading home, temperatures will have dropped to around freezing.

The real cold settles in on Wednesday as high pressure pushes a secondary cold front through the region. Afternoon highs will not reach freezing in most spots despite the bright sunshine. Breezy conditions will set up as well tomorrow. While it won’t be super windy, folks who must work outdoors will need to dress for wind chills in the teens on Wednesday.


Temperatures will begin a warming trend on Thursday as high pressure shifts east into Pennsylvania. Afternoon highs will remain below seasonal averages, however. Highs on Thursday will get to the mid/upper-30s.

Our next storm system will ride northward along the Atlantic Coast on Friday. At the same time, another system will be approaching the Great Lakes from the Plains. There are still some questions regarding the timing and track of this next system but odds favor at least some period of precipitation through the weekend.

GFS MODEL depiction for Friday night. Low pressure along the east coast will travel north spreading precipitation into the Valley Friday night.

With a warm southerly flow from the stronger coastal low, temperatures at this time should remain warm enough to support rain as the primary precipitation type. That Great Lakes low ill push a cold front through the region as it shifts east over the weekend. Snow showers will be possible Saturday night and Sunday morning in northern Ohio but current guidance suggests mostly dry conditions for east-central Ohio at this time. I’ll note that confidence in the current forecast is not ideal.

Temperatures Friday and Saturday should warm to around the mid-40s. Sunday looks a bit cooler behind that cold front.

A secondary low develops in the southern Plains Monday and shifts east into the Tennessee Valley. I will continue to monitor the development of this system for possible wintry impacts early next week.

GFS MONDAY NIGHT. Low pressure crossing to our south may bring wintry precipitation to parts of southern/central Ohio. The north/south track of the system will be critical for the precipitation forecast early next week.

While it is way too early to make any kind of detailed forecast, we can look at the current weather trends shaping up. This can at least give us some hints of what we can expect later in the month. For folks hoping for snow around Christmas time, it doesn’t look very promising. Sorry.

Climate modeling over the past several days has been fairly consistent showing a zonal flow (west to east) setting up later in the month. A zonal flow is not very favorable if you’re wanting cold air coming in from the north. With this scenario in mind, the temperature trend in the 8 to 14-day outlook keeps a warmer-than-average temperature trend going as we approach Christmas.

That being said, Christmas is 15 days away. A lot can change in 15 days. But as things stand today, I would have to go with below-average chances for a White Christmas locally. I’ll keep you updated, of course.



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