Local weekend rain/snow details; Wintry precipitation looks more likely early next week

Nothing much in the way of weather issues is expected in the Valley on Friday. While clouds look to dominate most of the day, chances for rain will hold off until tonight. Moisture will increase from the southwest this evening ahead of weak low pressure. Temperatures will warm a bit today as well with warmer air pushing in ahead of the low. Temperatures locally should get to the low 40s this afternoon.

Rain will spread into east-central Ohio tonight and continue through much of the day Saturday. I’m not too concerned about any frozen precipitation tonight and Saturday as temperature profiles look to remain in the 40s until the system’s cold front crosses the region late Saturday evening.

GFS MODEL Saturday am: Light rain is likely to overspread east-central Ohio and remain through much of the day as weak low pressure crosses east.

Rain will mix with wet snow before changing over to all snow Saturday evening as colder air moves in behind the front. Snow showers will likely continue into early Sunday morning before tapering off and ending after sunrise.

NAM3k SIMULATED RADAR early Sunday morning: Scattered wet snow showers will develop behind a cold front and continue into Sunday morning.

Rain totals will run in the quarter-inch to half-inch. Snow accumulation locally will be light. I wouldn’t expect much more than a coating to a half-inch of wet snow. Area roads should be mainly wet and busy shoppers should see little if any impacts locally.

Mostly dry weather will return to the area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night as high pressure builds overhead. I can’t completely rule out a few snowflakes or a light snow shower at some point Sunday afternoon or Sunday night but the odds are maybe 20% or so. The dry weather will be short-lived, however.

The models are beginning to come into agreement regarding the early week storm system we-ve been discussing here over the last several days. The most notable changes are with the GFS model shifting to a more southerly track that the European model has been consistently showing the last couple of days. This trend in the GFS to the south – if it’s consistent – would mean an uptick in chances for snow rather than rain here in the Valley.

GFS MODEL MONDAY afternoon: A slight shift to the south as compared to earlier model runs. This shift south is more in agreement with the European model which raises the prospects of wintry precipitation in the Valley Monday night into Tuesday.

While it is still too soon to get into specifics, the trend to a more southerly track by the GFS model raises the potential to bring messy wintry precipitation to the region – especially as precipitation spreads west to east Monday morning. Rain/snow/sleet potential is something that will need to be monitored in the upcoming model runs. As the low travels northeast of the area late-day Monday, cold air will allow for the transition to all snow.

Today’s bottom line is this early week storm is starting to look like mainly a snow event locally. Specifics such as timing and amounts still need to be worked out. We’re still 4-5 days out. From the model trends I see today, I would lean toward at least some snow accumulation Monday night – Tuesday with this system locally.

Nearly everyone I know would like to see snow for Christmas but those who follow my updates know it doesn’t look likely this year. The Climate Prediction Center outlook map continues to favor warmer-than-average temperatures as we approach the 25th.

I created a graphic with my thoughts on the odds of a White Christmas here in the Valley. I’ll update this as we get closer to the big day, but for today, the odds look mighty slim.



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