Dry and mild conditions are expected until rain showers return on Tuesday.

Monday 02/03/2020 | Morning sunshine and relatively mild temperatures to start out the first work week of February. Funny how sunshine can change those Monday morning blues. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the day, though, as the next weather system approaches east-central Ohio.

Temperatures today will be around 20° above average today under a warm southerly breeze. Locally we’ll top out just shy of 60° this afternoon.

Today will likely be the nicest day of the week. Low pressure will travel from Illinois into Northern Ohio tonight and Tuesday along a weak cold front. Odds for rain showers will gradually increase overnight and light rain will be likely locally as you head out Tuesday morning.

Temperatures overnight will remain in the upper-40s here so all precipitation will stay liquid. The front looks to stay to our north through the day tomorrow keeping us here in the Valley on the warm side until the front sags south Tuesday evening/night. Tuesday will be another warm day here with highs in the mid-50s.

The front dips south through east-central Ohio Tuesday night and colder air will follow as winds shift from the north. Temperatures will cool to around 30° by sunrise Wednesday. We’ll see a period of rain/snow mix precipitation before changing over to all snow. I wouldn’t expect much if any, accumulation. The snow won’t last long and the ground is so warm from the sunshine we had today and yesterday.

SNOWFALL FORECAST. Notice that this is snowfall – not snow accumulation. Snow will have a hard time sticking due to warm surface temperatures.

High pressure will build in from the Midwest briefly on Wednesday and will bring a mostly cloudy but dry and cooler day. Temperatures that were in the 50s on Tuesday will only get to the mid-30s on Wednesday.

Thereafter, there are still enough differences in the modelling that confidence in the forecast becomes weak. While the models are in good agreement that another low will travel northeast toward the area Wednesday night and Thursday, there remain some big differences in timing and exact placement of the low. These will be a critical factor in the precipitation types we end up seeing Wednesday night and Thursday.

Until the timing and placement can be resolved, all wintry precipitation types are on the table Wednesday night and Thursday. This includes the potential for freezing rain so we’re going to have to pay close attention going forward.

GFS MODEL SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AM. Low pressure moving through the region Wednesday night into Thursday will likely bring a wintry mix of precipitation to east-central Ohio. While amounts are not possible quite yet, rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible through the period.

The storm should move into New England by Friday and any precipitation that lingers will likely be snow. Lake effect snow showers will set up along the snowbelt counties in Ohio. We will also need to watch this period closely for any lake effect bands that happen to be hefty enough to reach this far south.

Again, this is not written in stone. The track and timing of this storm system will likely change going forward. A phone app is not going to help you here. The only sure bet is that there will likely be some wintry weather for our area late in the week. What that comprises is not certain at this time.

I’ll keep following the late week potential and post updates here throughout the week. I live here too so I try my best to get things right. You can subscribe to update notifications here or follow us on Twitter for updates throughout the day. Until then, enjoy your Monday!



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