Decreasing rain chances today; Much colder to end the week

Rain is expected today as a slow-moving cold front crosses the region. High pressure on Tuesday will result in drier conditions before the next area of low pressure increases the chance of rain later on Wednesday. Much colder air returns Thursday night through Saturday.

Rain showers/mist/drizzle continue with nearly certain odds this morning. The probability will decrease through the afternoon as a cold front slowly makes its way across east-central Ohio. Temperatures today will also remain fairly steady in the low-40s. Fog may develop this afternoon and evening as colder air moves over the wet ground and might impact your evening commute home.

The cold front will stall over northern West Virginia tonight. Precipitation will remain mostly south of I-70 closer to the frontal boundary with cloudy skies overhead here in the Valley. I kept a slight chance for rain and drizzle in the forecast through early this evening and dry conditions overnight. With the clouds, around temperatures won’t drop off much more than freezing overnight.

MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES

Weak high pressure will build overhead on Tuesday and bring us the first of only two dry days this week. Clouds will break enough to allow for intermittent sunshine and temperatures similar to today. Dry and relatively warm conditions will be short-lived as the next system is approaching from the Midwest.

TUESDAY WEATHER MAP

TURNING UNSETTLED AND COLDER
Clouds will fill back in early Wednesday with low pressure approaching and traveling up the Ohio River Valley. Rain chances will gradually increase during the afternoon as rain spreads south to north. It’s a little tough to determine where the rain/snow line will set up and at this point, I kept the forecast wet until the low passes east and the colder air begins moving in on Thursday. This may change in later forecasts when the models come into better agreement on where the rain/snow boundary sets up.

EUROPEAN MODEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT Rain and possibly snow showers will develop as low pressure moves northeast into the Ohio River Valley.

Rain production with this system could be efficient. A total of 1″ to 2″ of rain will be possible locally. The groud is already saturated from recent rain and melting snow. This could lead to water issues and possibly minor flooding in our flood-prone locations.

NWSWPC TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTION through Friday AM

Snow showers are likely Thursday as true arctic air will move in over east-central Ohio. The snow showers will be brief and snow accumulation locally looks minor at this point. High pressure will build over the region Thursday night allowing clouds to clear out by Friday. We can look forward to a couple of cold days and nights before temperatures recover for the weekend.

You’ll need to dig that winter coat back out of the back of the closet. Temperatures Thursday night can be around 10° and not warm much more than the low-20s on Valentine’s Day despite the ample sunshine. After another cold one Friday night, temperatures will begin to warm back some on Saturday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Arctic high pressure shifts to the east on Saturday allowing warmer air from the south to flow back into the region. This might just be the nicest Saturday we’ve had in quite a while – dry, sunny, and afternoon temperatures around 40°.

Modeling is uncertain with the next system arriving on Sunday but for now, we can expect to see odds for rain and snow returning at some point on Sunday.

LONG RANGE
Our temperatures are forecast to be above normal for the 8-14 day outlook according to the NWS Climate Prediction Center. In addition, precipitation trends look to be above normal as well. Our mild, rainy winter has no end in sight.

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