Changeable Snow Forecast

Published: 5:10 PM EST 02/10/2020
Initial Forecast – Changes Are Possible

Winter Weather Advisories are going up in northern parts of Ohio in advance of a winter storm system that will bring a mixed bag of wintry precipitation to the Tuscarawas Valley. Winter Weather Advisories are not anticipated for our area.

A sharp snow/rain line will set up with this system. Small variances in the track of the storm system will have implications on what types of precipitation we get locally at any one time. In other words, the forecast can change as we learn more about how the storm will track.

THE SETUP
Low pressure will track into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday afternoon and travel east across southern Ohio. Precipitation will spread southwest to northeast Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Precipitation will taper off Thursday afternoon ending Thursday evening/night. Differences in modeling remain with regard to precipitation types and timing.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
As it stands late on Tuesday, the main precipitation type we see here locally will be rain. However, periods of wet snow and mixed precipitation will be a possibility. Snow and/or mixed rain/snow can occur Wednesday afternoon/evening as precipitation gets underway. Any frozen precipitation will transition to rain Wednesday night. Rain can then transition back to snow showers on Thursday as the system pulls away and cold air begins to move into the region.

Approximate timing of rain/snow Wednesday through Thursday
* Centered on New Philadelphia

SNOW ACCUMULATION
Snow showers will impact our area twice. Snow and/or mixed precipitation Wednesday evening/night will melt under the rain overnight Wednesday. One-half to 1-inch of snow can accumulate on Thursday as the cold air moves in. Snow will bring minor impacts locally. As the forecast stands today, snow accumulation will be more as you travel north.

RAIN AMOUNTS
Rain looks to be THE primary precipitation type with this system. Rainfall can be moderate to heavy at times. Current projections indicate around 1/2-inch to 3/4-inch of rain will be possible locally before the changeover back to snow occurs.

Rain Totals through Thursday night.

Rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday morning could be moderate to heavy at times. Given the saturated ground from previous rain and melting snow, minor localized flooding is possible.

LOCAL IMPACTS
As far as snow is concerned, this is a low-impact storm for us here in the Valley. There will be minor snow accumulation but the main roads should do just fine. Secondary and untreated roads may develop slick spots. Moderate snowfall rates Wednesday evening may hamper visibility at times in some locations.

ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
No weather Advisories or Warnings are anticipated for our area. Additional winter weather headlines may be issued for northern Ohio.

IMPORTANT CAVEAT
As I mentioned earlier, the forecast can change as later data comes in. There is still some disagreement between the models. I did notice a slight trend to the north in today’s model runs. That would mean more rain and less snow for the Valley.

I’ll post an update Wednesday morning with the latest.

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