Our summerlike weather pattern this week will transition to cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Unfortunately, things can get a little bumpy when these warm moist weather conditions switch to a more pleasant weather pattern.
The change in our weekend weather will begin with a sharp cold front moving east through eastern Ohio later today. The front will be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Some of those storms this afternoon can be severe. Damaging straight-line winds and spotty hail are the primary threats with these storms. Pockets of heavy rain are also possible. The threat of tornadoes in eastern Ohio is nil.
While the main threat for severe storms is mainly during the afternoon and early evening, there is enough energy and instability for a spotty shower or thunderstorm during the morning. Any storms that happen to develop and move through the Valley this morning should remain non-severe.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of eastern Ohio highlighted for the standard Slight Risk category (level 1 on a scale of 1 to 5).
I think we will see intervals of sunshine today. It will be warm and there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. The trigger will be our cold front. Thunderstorms will almost certainly develop. It’s just a question of how strong they can become.
One of the primary factors that will have an impact on this afternoon’s storms will be the amount of clearing we will see ahead of the front. The more sunshine we manage to see this morning and early this afternoon, the more unstable the atmosphere will become. Today, sunshine will NOT be our friend.
While we can expect isolated thunderstorms early in the day, the main threat for severe thunderstorms will arrive in the late afternoon through early evening hours – between 4PM and 8PM.
- Damaging wind gusts
- Flash Flooding due to heavy rainfall
Tornadoes will not be a threat in eastern Ohio today. Remember, though, wind is wind. It doesn’t much matter to trees, power lines, roofs, or buildings if the wind is from a weak tornado or straight-line wind. The damage from straight-line wind can be just as bad as a weak tornado (EF0 or EF1).
AFTER THE STORMS
We’ll see quite the air mass change behind our cold front. Dew points today in the low to mid-60s will drop to the mid to upper-40s for Saturday as much drier air arrives. Temperatures locally will also be cooler – not cold, but it will be pleasantly cool and dry over the weekend.
A NOTE ABOUT WEATHER ALERTS
I do not send weather alerts. I do recommend an NOAA Weather Radio for home and work for weather alerts directly from the source – the National Weather Service. I also highly recommend the FEMA App for your phone and mobile device. Search ‘FEMA App’ on your device’s app store to download and install the app. The FEMA app is a non-commercial app and is programmable for weather alerts specific to your location and up to 4 additional locations. I’ve been using it for 5 years and it has never failed to alert during severe weather.