Rain chances increasing as we head into the weekend

Posted Thursday, August 13, 2020, 9:00 AM

Thursday will bring yet another moderately warm late summer day to the Valley. A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains drapped across the Ohio River Valley to our south. While sunshine will dominate today, a quick shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. It’s a small chance and most areas will stay dry today. Otherwise, we’ll see a touch of humidity this afternoon with dew points in the mid-60s.

Any showers or storms in the region will quickly fade this evening with the sunset and loss of heating. Expect a dry, warm, and humid night with lows just shy of 70°.

I like honesty in a weather forecast and I have to say that, honestly, there are some important modeling differences as we head into the weekend. Friday looks to start out dry but moisture will increase as a low pressure system approaches from the southeast Friday afternoon. As the low creeps into SE Ohio late in the day, chances for a shower or storm will again increase during the afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY WEATHER MAP: Much will depend on the north/south placement of low pressure as it travels west to east across Ohio. Low confidence forecast at this point.

Coverage and timing of the rain in east-central Ohio will depend largly on how far north that low actually gets as it makes its way east through Saturday. The best odds for widespread rain locally will be Friday night through Saturday as the low travels east through the state. Shower and storm chances will then decrease on Sunday as the low exits to the mid-Atlantic region.

Generally speaking, modeling suggests a good slug of rain with the weekend system with some potential for moderate to heavy rainfall at times. Total rainfall could average about an inch to maybe 1.5-inches through the weekend. I know no one likes to see wet weather on the weekend but in all honesty, we do need the rain.

PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK
Now for some good news. A decent cold front will follow the system moving through over the weekend. This will prompt a big change in our weather pattern as cooler and much drier air moves in behind the front. Gone will be these muggy hot days – at least for a while. By Tuesday we’ll start to see daytime highs in the upper-70s with dew points in the 50s.

What about rain next week? High pressure will build into the region which, in theory, should keep skies mostly sunny through Wednesday. The generall thinking is that precipitation will be hard to come by next week.

I do want to stress a low confidence forecast for the weekend forecast because of model differences. I’ll take another look at things Friday morning and see if there is better agreement with the track of the low that’s slated to move through. Much depends on how far north the system tracks and right now there are significant differences between the two major models.

Whether you follow my forecasts or not, take any weekend forecast with a grain of salt at this point if you have outdoor plans. I’ll post an update on the TuscWeather website and app by Friday afternoon with updated forecast information.

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