Gloomy and damp the next couple of days; Heavy widespread rain possible on Thursday

Posted Monday, October 26, 2020

The last week of October will be a stark contrast to last week’s beautiful fall weather. It will stay pretty gray this week with plenty of cloud cover. And, we may have to deal with the remnants of a tropical system and heavy rainfall later in the week.

Weak low pressure over eastern Lake Erie has a weak cold front extending south through Ohio today. The boundary will stall over central Ohio tonight keeping gray skies and the threat of occasional light rain and drizzle in our forecast through Monday. several ripples riding along the stalled boundary will keep that weather trend going into Tuesday.

Low pressure over eastern Lake Erie will extend a nearly stationary boundary through southeastern Ohio through Tuesday. Several ripples riding along the boundary will keep cloudy skies and rain chances in the forecast.

Wednesday looks like the driest day of the work week as high pressure briefly returns. It won’t be the brightest day but at least we will see some sunshine occasionally.

The biggest weather concern this week will be the potential for a widespread heavy rain event that could impact east-central Ohio on Thursday. The models show two strong storm systems – one system currently in the western US and remnants of tropical storm Zeta – merging together and traveling into the Ohio River Valley. This merger of these two powerful systems will have the potential to bring a swath of heavy rain later in the workweek.

National Hurrican Center forecast track of Zeta as of Monday morning. Zeta is forecast to merge with a strong storm system in the western US to bring the potential for heavy rainfall to east-central Ohio on Thursday.

Given the model trends of the track of this system this morning, the heaviest rain potential looks to set up along and south of the US-30 corridor. If this turns out to be the correct placement, we could be looking at an inch to two inches of rain here in the Valley Wednesday night through Thursday night. The system should then push east of the area Thursday night bringing an end to the rain Friday morning.

NWSWPC TOTAL RAIN POTENTIAL Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.

Notice: The exact track of these systems is not yet set in stone. The track can change north or south in the coming days and this will have an impact on the amount of rain we can receive.

Colder temperatures will return to the Valley Friday night behind our storm system. If you have managed to keep your garden going this long, be aware that temperatures Friday night are likely to get down to freezing. (NWS will not issue freeze headlines.)

Early indications are that Saturday will return dry but chilly weather to the Valley for Trick-or-Treat on Halloween. High pressure will bring sunshine for Saturday, but the kids will need to dress for temperatures in the mid-40s Saturday evening.

My EARLY Halloween forecast. Subject to change.

I’ll continue to monitor the track of our Thursday storm system and keep you updated on the rain situation as the track of the system comes into focus. I would prepare for a pretty soggy day on Thursday, though.



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