A cold front brings rain/snow tonight; Christmas weather update

Published 10:00 AM EST Saturday, December 19, 2020

Much of the morning and early afternoon will stay dry across the Valley with mid and high level clouds thinning some to allow for filtered sunshine – something we’ve not seen here in the Valley for a few days. The snowpack will help hold temperatures down across the area today despite some sunshine. Temperatures locally will top out in the upper-30s in most of our northern locations. Those neighborhoods along and south of New Phila can get to around 40°.

A weak cold front will make its way through east-central Ohio tonight. Expect clouds to increase once again later today ahead of the front with precipitation starting out as rain tonight. As temperatures cool closer to freezing overnight, the rain will change over to rain/snow showers. Wet snow showers will continue into Sunday morning before mixing with and changing back to rain as temperatures warm back up Sunday afternoon.

NAM Model depiction Sunday AM

The snow tonight and Sunday shouldn’t amount to much. Temperatures aloft do not favor significant snow growth and surface temperatures will be borderline. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will warm to around 40° or so.

We could see a brief lull in precipitation and some thinning of clouds looks possible to start out on Monday. Another low pressure system will bring back chances for light snow showers Monday afternoon but the better odds for snow will hold off until Monday evening. Again, temperatures will be borderline and some of this could fall as rain or a rain/snow mix.

European Model – Monday night into Tuesday

Our weather dries out again Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region. This will also bring another opportunity for rare sunshine to the region. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to hover around the 40-degree mark.

there is a ton of speculation and wish-casting about the potential for snow on or around Christmas. However, most of the social media chatter I’ve seen regarding impactful Christmas snow is a stretch to say the least.

Computer modeling trend over the last 24 hours has slowed down the low pressure system that will impact east-central Ohio toward the end of the week. This would keep warmer temperatures for a longer time and as such, Christmas Eve would turn out to be a rainy day. With temperatures projected to be unseasonably warm on Thursday and with rain looking more likely, much of the current snow pack will erode away.

European model depicting Thursday AM

The cold front associated with this system is a strong one. Temperatures on Christmas Day will be the coldest they’ve been so far this winter. And, it’ll be windy too, which means wind chills will be frigid to say the least.

Could there be some snow on Christmas Day? Certainly. But if we were to take the current modeling as gospel (which we can’t, by the way), it wouldn’t be much snow -. maybe some flurries or light snow showers. Snow would be more likely to accumulate up north and closer to the lake.

European model Thursday afternoon

This is 6 days out yet and we will continue to watch closely and keep interested folks updated, of course. But, I will say at this time that significant accumulating snow on Christmas is not anywhere near a sure thing. Some snow maybe, but let’s keep it real.

One thing you CAN count on is that it’s going to get mighty cold on Friday.

Thanks for reading the Valley’s most in-depth weather. I’ll continue to post updates through Christmas Eve and keep you updated as to the REAL prospects of snow on Christmas. Forecasts will get more detailed as we get closer to the big day.

As always, be safe (and kind) out there.



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