Posted 01/24/2023 9:00 AM EST
A quiet but chilly day today but a winter storm will spread quickly accumulating snow into the Valley early Wednesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for our area.
A winter storm system will spread a variety of wintry precipitation into the Valley Wednesday. The biggest issue with this next system is not the amount of snow but the timing of when snow showers will occur. The storm will not produce boatloads of snow but it will bring enough snow at just the right time to impact the Wednesday morning commute.
Low pressure will track southwest to northeast through Ohio Wednesday morning. Snow showers will spread into east-central Ohio and continue for a handful of hours until a warm front lifts south to north late in the morning/early afternoon. Warm Gulf air will get sucked into the storm causing temperatures to gradually increase. Snow showers will change over to rain. There will likely be a brief period where we see some sleet and/or freezing mix while during this transition period. This shouldn’t last too long and we should see just plain rain in our area by early afternoon.
Rain showers during the afternoon and early evening will then change back to snow as colder air wraps into the system Wednesday night. North winds will pick up as well. We can expect a colder day on Thursday with breezy conditions and additional snow showers. Thursday could also bring some tricky travel conditions depending on how intense these snow bands set up.
LOCAL TIMING
Snow showers look to get underway here in the Valley around 4:00/5:00 AM Wednesday morning. Snowfall will quickly spread from southwest to northeast. Snowfall locally could be moderate to heavy at times for a few hours, especially in the early morning. Wednesday morning will be the period where we get the bulk of our snowfall and when accumulating snow will have the biggest impact on travel.
LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS
Generally, I expect we’ll see about 2″ to 4″ of snow from this Wednesday morning. After a period of rain showers Wednesday afternoon and evening, rain showers will likely change back to snow Wednesday night. Additional snow showers are likely on Thursday.
NOTE that the snow amounts below are for the period tonight through Wednesday evening. Much of Wednesday morning’s snow will melt with the rain Wednesday afternoon. Scattered snow showers that can occur Wednesday night through Friday could bring an additional 1″ to 2″ to the area.
Again. The biggest issue Wednesday morning is not the total amount of snow but the timing of when the heaviest snowfall is expected. Accumulating snow will spread quickly Wednesday morning making for a tough morning commute tomorrow. Snowfall rates can be an inch or so per hour at times in the morning. By the time we get to the late afternoon and evening commute area roads should just be wet.
LOCAL IMPACTS
- Travel will likely be challenging/difficult at times Wednesday morning.
- School delays/closings
- Business delays/closings
CAVEATS
Wednesday’s storm system is extremely complex with a good number of variables in play. This forecast is based on computer guidance as of Tuesday morning. There can still be slight changes in the exact track of this system as it moves through the state. Small changes in the track will have implications on the timing of various events as well as total precipitation types and amounts.
There are also model differences in the placement of a dry slot that, depending on where it ends up going, can end up cutting off precipitation for a time. This would also impact the total amount of snow accumulation. The bottom line is that there can be changes in how the storm plays out so changes in the forecast for our area are a good possibility.
As always, I’ll post updates here and on the Twitter feed (@tuscwx) if there are any noteworthy changes in the forecast.
