The majority of yesterday’s severe storm activity stayed well off to our north, as I suspected. No tornadoes were reported, but there were plenty of hail and wind reports from some fairly impressive thunderstorms.
After a morning lull on this fine Thursday morning, another potential for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast for this afternoon in our area. The environment will be a little less favorable for severe development due to cloud cover, lower dewpoints, and less instability. However, if thunderstorms can organize into clusters or short lines, some could manage to tap into those megar resources and be capable of strong winds and perhaps even small hail.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Level 1, Marginal Risk for this afternoon for this low-end risk.
As outlined above the highest risk will come from strong thunderstorm wind gusts, but some hail in the tallest storms can’t be ruled out.
While a shower or storm will be possible anytime this afternoon and early evening, the best time for the stronger storms in our area will be from about 3 pm to 6 PM or so.
Storms later today should clear our area by sunset. A ridge of high pressure should build into the region and bring an end to this string of daily thunderstorm activity for Friday and Friday night.
SATURDAY
Friday should be a calm, warm, and quiet weather day across eastern Ohio. Saturday, however, is shaping up to bring the highest chance of severe weather we’ve had so far.
A strong cold front is still slated to move through the east-central Ohio region during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday. This will bring yet one more opportunity of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.
The main issue with the forecast at this point is the timing of the front. The timing will have implications for how much instability can build ahead of the front. A couple/three hours or so can make a big difference in storm severity and impacts. (Of course, later in the day, during peak heating, would be the worst-case scenario.)
Hopefully, this will come into better focus over the next 24 to 36 hours. As of now, though, plan on a round of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening timeframe with potentially strong winds as the main threat.
One aspect of the cold front on Saturday I’m confident in is that temperatures on Sunday and for much of next week will be much cooler and more in line with mid-April temperatures.
