TUESDAY AM | Our cold front is currently dropping through east-central Ohio this morning and temperatures at 9:00 am will likely be the highest of the day.
As the front continues tracking south, cold arctic air will rush in and temperatures will drop off through the rest of the day. Temperatures across the Tuscarawas Valley will fall to around 20 degrees by 5:00 pm.
Along with falling temperatures, today will bring gusty winds and periodic lake effect snow showers/squalls. Some winds could gust as high as 35 mph at times through the remainder of the day and overnight tonight.
We will not see a lot of additional snow accumulation today for the majority of the Valley area. The only exception will be those random places that happen to get into a more robust band of snow. Generally, most neighborhoods should see less than an inch of additional snow today.
Hi-res futurecast radar through midnight tonight:
Communities that happen to get into one of these snow bands will get a quick burst of snow. Drivers will need to watch out for reduced visibility in these bands.
Lake effect snow bands will continue to develop overnight but winds aloft will shift more westerly. While I can’t 100-percent rule out a stray band of snow reaching south into northern portions of the Valley, the mainly west component will keep the vast majority of lake effect snow showers north of the Valley tonight.
The main weather factor we’ll deal with overnight will be cold temperatures and brutal wind chills. Temperatures tonight will dip to the mid teens. Those gusty west winds will mean wind chill temperatures at or near zero degrees Wednesday morning as we head out to work and school.
Those lake effect snow band will gradually thin out as we get toward sunrise Wednesday and I wouldn’t expect much snow to start the day. Temperatures and wind chills will be nasty cold, though.
SIMULATED radar from the NAM at 8:00 am Wednesday:
WEDNESDAY – THURSDAY SNOW THUMP #2
While we will get a nice break in the snowfall through the first half of Wednesday, our next low pressure system is advancing east and will bring another thump of snow by early Wednesday afternoon. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
The NAM (North American Model) suggests temperatures will warm a bit ahead of this system and we may get into a short period of rain just ahead of the snow. I’m not quite sold on that, but I am pretty much convinced that widespread snow will blanket east-central Ohio shortly after lunch time tomorrow.
We may get into a little break in the heaviest and steadiest snowfall around 4-6 pm, but the break won’t last long. More snow will move in from the west Wednesday evening and snow will likely continue through the better part of Wednesday night. (8:00 pm MAN Simulated Radar):
It will be cold and it will be windy. This snow will stick on roads and highways. Travel will be affected.
SNOW ACCUMULATION IDEAS
There will be some adjustments over the coming hours but most of today’s modeling suggests around 4 inches of additional snow from this second system.
There are a couple of things that need to clear up in the modeling yet but I think for now a good general 3″ – 5″ for the Valley is a good forecast – for now. I’ll do another update later this evening as today’s models update and give me a more solid idea of snow accumulation.
There will be enough to have impacts on area roads, highways and walkways, though. And, probably plenty enough to shovel.
THE REST OF THE WEEK
Snow showers should end Thursday morning leaving us dry through Friday. A disturbance may bring a few light snow showers Friday night but temperatures are forecast to be closer to average as we head into the weekend and through part of next week. Temperatures will then once again turn colder as we near Christmas.
As for any predictions of snow around Christmas Day, that’s just not something we can say with any certainty at this point. With that being said, I do notice that some of the longer range climate models indicate the presence of SOME moisture. That of course, could mean better odds for snow around Christmas.
I will say that the European model is a little bullish on snow probabilities for Christmas…
But, with Christmas being two weeks out yet, a lot can change. While snow on the ground for Christmas is promising, reality and past weather don’t lend much support.