We’ll begin our work week with a dry and slightly warmer day. Temperatures this afternoon will get to the mid 30s in most Tuscarawas Valley neighborhoods. We may see a few flurries or light snow in spots this afternoon but there will be little or no problems with accumulating snow today.
Although today will bring nothing in the way of weather issues, that’s going to change tonight as low pressure drags a strong cold front across east-central Ohio tonight and Tuesday.
The front will bring what we call synaptic (meaning non-lake effect and more of a widespread snow event) snow late tonight into Tuesday morning. Snow will likely have an effect on your Tuesday morning commute to work and school.
By Tuesday afternoon the system will transition to a more lake effect snow event. The lake effect snow will have little impact for the majority of the Tuscarawas Valley.
Odds for snow showers in the Valley will increase after midnight tonight with widespread snow showers becoming likely after 3:00 / 4:00 am.
The heaviest and steadiest snow showers will continue into Tuesday morning commute times. (8:00 am SIMULATED radar from the NAM:)
The heaviest and steadiest snow showers should taper off by mid morning and end by lunch time for the most part.
A few scattered light snow showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night – depending exactly how those lake effect snow bands setup. (5:00 pm SIMULATED radar from the NAM:)
Random lake effect snow bands are extremely difficult to predict. Visibility and weather conditions can change rapidly should you find yourself in the path of one of these bands.
Although the bulk of snow showers will have ended, a rush of much colder arctic air will flow in behind the front Tuesday. Temperatures will be warmer (25 or so) and fall in the afternoon. Tuesday will be a windy, cold and blustery day with random snow showers and winds gusting to 30/35 mph or so.
Temperatures will continue to decline Tuesday night and by early Wednesday will fall to the mid teens in the pre dawn hours with wind chills in the low single digits to perhaps zero.
HOW MUCH SNOW?
This isn’t so much about the amount of snow, but how the timing of this system will impact your morning. It will not be a big snow producer for us here in the Valley. Most neighborhoods will only end up with an inch or two. Those townships and communities north of Dover – Strasburg, Bolivar, Mineral City, Sugarcreek – will have better odds of getting up to three inches out of this.
Generally speaking, if you travel south for work/school you’ll deal with less snow. Those who must go north into Stark, Wayne, northern Carroll, etc., you’ll find yourself dealing with more snow on the roads.
Accumulating snow will impact your Tuesday morning commute. As is usually the case, the main highways should fare the best. County and back country roads will likely be snow covered and slippery in spots. Visibility will also be an issue if you drive through a heavier snow band or squall.
I do not have anything to do with any decisions regarding school delays. Contact your school for information regarding school adjustments.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- Snow showers late tonight into Tuesday morning
- Snow may be heavy at times early Tuesday
- Snow showers, blowing snow, and accumulating snow will affect your morning commute
- Widespread and steadiest snow will taper off Tuesday late morning
- Random lake effect snow bands will bring spotty snow in the afternoon & evening
- Windy with falling temperatures and random snow showers through Tuesday afternoon
- Becoming very cold by Wednesday morning with wind chills near zero degrees
LATER IN THE WEEK
Once the cold temperatures arrive it will remain cold through the end of the work week. I’ll continue to monitor the next system that may bring another round of weather impacts to east-central Ohio Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
We will start to see a trend toward milder temperatures as we head into the weekend and through part of next week. Temperatures will then once again turn colder as we near Christmas.
As for any predictions of snow around Christmas Day, that’s just not something we can say with any certainty at this point. With that being said, I do notice that some of the longer range climate models indicate the presence of SOME moisture. That of course, could mean better odds for snow around Christmas.
I will say that the European model is a little bullish on snow probabilities for Christmas…
But, with Christmas being two weeks out yet, a lot can change. While snow on the ground for Christmas is promising, reality and past weather don’t lend much support.