Rain chances return on Wednesday with widespread rain likely Thursday

Tuesday will bring another mostly sunny day to east-central Ohio. High pressure will slide east during the day setting up a more northeasterly flow that will help pump temperatures up to around 40 degrees.

We will also see clouds increase this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak system that will bring warmer air and increasing chances for rain on Wednesday. Temperatures should warm to the low 50s in most neighborhoods despite the cloud cover.

As for the rain, current modeling suggests a dry first half of the day here in the Valley but light rain/drizzle will begin moving in from the south by mid afternoon. I would expect scattered light showers and/or drizzle by Wednesday evening.

Light rain showers will continue Wednesday night with rain becoming more widespread by Thursday afternoon and evening as low pressure and a cold front tracks south across Ohio. There will be quite a bit of moisture with this system and there is the potential that it could produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Projected rain totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) indicates around an inch on rainfall will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday night in the Tuscarawas Valley.

While today’s guidance shows most of the rain associated with this should stay just to our south, the potential is there for an inch of so of rainfall here in the Valley over the 24-hour period. That would be enough to cause some minor local flooding issues in spots.

Our cold front finally drops south through east-central Ohio on Friday accompanied by rain and some gusty wind. With much colder air rushing in behind the front, rain showers will transition over to a mix of rain/snow before finally changing over to all snow in the afternoon.

Snow showers should’t last long and won’t add up to much. And, Friday may just be THE last wintry day we see here in the Valley through the end of the month.

Temperatures Wednesday will be in the low 50s for afternoon highs. Even warmer – low 60s – on Thursday. Friday’s high temperature will peak in the morning ahead of the front, falling through the rest of the day.

High pressure will return on Saturday and dominate our weather through Sunday. Despite ample sunshine on Saturday, it will be a chilly day with afternoon highs in the upper 30s. We recover nicely on Sunday with bright sunshine and temperatures getting to around 50 degrees.

Earlier I mentioned that Friday could very well be the last wintry day we see in the Valley through at least the end of the month. According to long range modeling, winter looks to take a break. While there are some small differences between the CFS (American climate model) and the European, both signal a warm temperature pattern to finish out February.

What do I mean by warm? Briefly, we’re looking at temperatures IN GENERAL that are 5 to 10 degrees above average for late February. These could rival the warm temperatures we saw last February.

Of course, you know there will be a price to pay for this warmth. Along with the warmer temperature pattern to finish out the month, it may also be a more active pattern with numerous chances for rain.



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