A mild start today but those warmer temperatures are going to come with a price – several days of rain and perhaps a quick hit of snow showers over the weekend.
As for Valentine’s Day in the Valley, clouds will stick around pretty much all day. There may even be a few spotty areas of drizzle or light rain this morning as low pressure approaches northern Ohio and moves across the Great Lakes today. Better chances for rain across east-central Ohio will arrive after lunch time. Once here, rain will stick around this evening and tonight.
Hi-res Futurecast radar through midnight tonight:
There could even be a rumble or two of thunder tonight:
Even with the clouds and rain, temperatures this afternoon will warm nicely into the low 50s across the region.
Although I can’t completely rule out a renegade spotty shower, we should get a break in the steadiest rain late tonight and early Thursday morning. Widespread rain will move back in over the region by Thursday afternoon as the next low tracks across the Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
There is a boatload of moisture associated with this system and the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Although there are some differences in the modeling, generally higher rainfall totals will be possible just to our south.
Still, we look to end up with a fairly decent slug of rain Thursday afternoon through Friday evening with the potential of 1.5 to 2.0 inches possible here in east-central Ohio.
The low will also drag a cold front across the region Friday morning. Friday looks to be one of those backward days where the day’s high temperature occurs in the morning. Temperatures will drop off behind the cold front during the afternoon. The passage of the front will also bring an end to the rain.
With cooling temperatures behind the cold front Friday afternoon, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some wet snow mixing in for a brief period as precipitation ends. This shouldn’t amount to much and I don’t anticipate much if any in the way of accumulation here in the Valley.
IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN ON LOCAL STREAMS AND THE TUSKY
All of this rain will have an impact on local waterways. Residents in Uhrichsville along Stillwater Creek will need to closely monitor water levels in the creek on Friday. Current forecasts indicate a rise that could approach (minor) flood stage:
The heaviest rain is forecast to occur south of New Philadelphia, so water levels along the Tuscarawas River will fare a little better. The river is forecast to rise, but current forecasts keep levels below flood stage:
A WEEKEND TWIST
High pressure will build Friday night into Saturday bringing us a period of dry although cooler weather. Our computer models then disagree on a system on Saturday night that could bring the possibility of snow showers.
The GFS shows the system mainly along southern Ohio but snow from this has a decent chance of creeping far enough north to bring snow showers for a time Saturday night here in the Valley.
There are still a lot of details to work out, and not all the modeling agrees with this solution, but we will need to at least include chances for snow showers in the forecast Saturday night. If this pans out as some of the modeling suggests, it wouldn’t amount to much and it should be a quick-hitter. Details, of course, will get worked out in the coming days.
Cool but dry again on Sunday with high pressure paying a visit.
Monday and Tuesday look wet with both the GFS and European models bringing a low pressure out of the Plains through the Great Lakes. As a matter of fact, the medium range forecasts look very wet with plenty of opportunities for rain.
The WPC outlook for significant rain raises the potential for local flooding across portions of central and southern Ohio into next week. Something we’re going to need to keep a close eye on.