Threat for strong/severe storms on Saturday

Friday should bring a mostly cloudy and cooler day to the Tuscarawas Valley. Spotty showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be lurking about east-central Ohio and there will be a slight chance a few places could see some sprinkles or a shower. Most areas should remain dry, though. Better odds for rain or a storm will come tonight.

Futurecast radar through 1:00 AM Saturday:

With ample clouds and a frontal boundary around, temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably cooler this afternoon. Most places will see highs in the upper 60s.

Those warmer temperatures just to our south will migrate north tonight as a warm front lifts through. The front will stall across Lake Erie on Saturday. Since our area will be on the warm side of the boundary again, temperatures on Saturday will be a bit warmer. We should see afternoon highs top out at around 80 degrees or so.

Air in the warm sector will also turn muggier Saturday and dew points will climb to the mid-60s.

An upper-level disturbance will ride along the boundary Saturday forcing the front to dip south once again as a cold front. With increased instability ahead of the boundary, showers and thunderstorms will become likely by mid-afternoon.

[UPDATED 05/11 at 2:30 PM] Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening could be strong to severe. As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat to an ENHANCED RISK (3/5) for severe weather for all of east-central Ohio on Saturday.

Damaging wind gusts and large hail (quarter to half dollar size) are the primary threats with tomorrow’s storms. The threat for tornadoes is low – but not zero.

Training thunderstorms may also bring the risk of isolated flash flooding. It’s been relatively dry in the Valley lately so this shouldn’t be a widespread issue.

The highest risk for severe weather in east-central Ohio will be from 1:00 PM to 8:00 PM. Remain weather aware tomorrow but pay particular attention during the late afternoon and early evening.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, this pesky frontal boundary will continue to wabble north and south through the weekend. Several small disturbances will travel along the boundary keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in our forecast through Sunday.

With several opportunities for showers and storms over the next 72 hours, rain totals can add up. Current model projections indicate we may be on the receiving end of anywhere between a half to one inch of rain through the weekend.

With the front in the vicinity, temperatures will be highly dependent on where our frontal boundary decides to be at any given time.

Monday looks dry so far as weak high pressure builds in giving us a temporary respite from the threat of rain. Periodic disturbances will set up bringing back the threat of occasional showers and storms through midweek. Temperatures should remain warmer than average. A southerly flow will pump in moist Gulf air and result in more humid conditions.

With a warm, humid and unstable atmosphere, expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to highlight next week’s weather pattern.

Have a safe weekend and remember to stay weather aware on Saturday with the possibility of severe weather in the forecast.

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